A selection of commentary on the situation from RIA Novosti (I'm not block-quoting because this post is long enough as it is):
UNREST IN UZBEKISTAN MAY DESTABILIZE THE REGION - 15:30
MOSCOW, May 13 (RIA Novosti) - Unrest in Andizhan (Uzbekistan) can destabilize the situation in Central Asia, said Dina Malysheva, a leading researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
According to her, the socio-economic and political situation in Uzbekistan and the rest of Central Asia has been tense since the 1990s. The situation in Uzbekistan was complicated by the fact that the so-called Islamic extremists found refuge in the country's Fergana Valley. But it would be too simple to explain the current unrest in Andizhan by the new revival of Islamism, though the city has been a center of unofficial opposition Islamic movement of Uzbekistan since the early 1990s.
"It is very easy to say that the participants in unrest are members of Islamic organizations. We have been placing the label of Islamic extremism and terrorism without distinction on everyone who opposes the official authorities," said the expert. She pointed to several factors that could provoke unrest.
First, relations between the people and law enforcers are a major problem. The harsh actions taken by the authorities against the "Islamic extremists" provoked public discontent. So, unrest could be a reply to the abuse of power and the harsh actions of the authorities. Proof of this is the fact that one of the first facilities to be attacked in Andizhan was a penitentiary. Part of prisoners were released. On the other hand, the events could be part of a criminal war: the role of criminal structures, which sometimes act under Islamist flags, has grown of late.
Second, the events in Andizhan could be provoked by the socio-economic situation. The government failed to deal with mass unemployment, social inequality, jobless youths and growing drug trafficking. These problems may be the core of destabilization, which took the form of unrest. Even if the authorities put out the revolt, this will not solve the problems. And Andizhan and other regions may be shaken by new outbreaks of violence. Hence, the government should spotlight social problems and economic reforms.
Third, the revolt cannot be viewed separately from the wave of "color revolutions" which began in the region in Kyrgyzstan. The threat of revolutions forces the regional authorities to deal with every element of discontent with special vigilance and harshness, even if thee are no revolutionaries or Islamic extremists behind the events.
"The revolution in Kyrgyzstan created a precedent of an easy way of solving problems by violence," Malysheva said. And now the Uzbek authorities can only act firmly and nip the revolt in the bud, though this is not a guaranteed medicine.
"In the worst possible case, the [revolutionary] flames can spread to other regional states, and we may have a second civil war in Tajikistan," the expert thinks.
There is one more key element: "To believe information from Uzbekistan, the rebels have appealed to the Russian president to interfere and mediate for them. It is difficult to say who are these people and what aims they pursue. But, one way or another, the events in Uzbekistan is a chance for such regional structures as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to show in deed what it can do."
RUSSIAN EXPERT: DISORDERS IN ANDIZHAN ARE WELL-PLANNED ACTION 14:56
MOSCOW, May 13 (RIA Novosti) - Disorders in Andizhan in eastern Uzbekistan are a well-planned action, said a Russian expert in the fight against international terrorism. He preferred to remain anonymous.
"The primary analysis of these events shows that the seizure of the police station was well planned and prepared," the expert told RIA Novosti. In his opinion, the seizure of state institutions was a classical sabotage operation.
"A group of well-armed militants on several cars attacked the police station to seize weapons and release their accomplices from jail," the expert noted.
Speaking about the actions of Uzbekistan's authorities, RIA Novosti's interlocutor said, "[Uzbekistan's President] Karimov arrival in rebellious Andizhan let the law enforcement bodies take control over the situation."
RIA Novosti reached a resident of Andizhan on the phone. In his words, the situation in the town was rather calm. There was shooting in the morning but it ceased. The broadcasting of Russian TV and radio channels was stopped but mobile communications are operating.
UZBEK AUTHORITIES TO QUELL ANDIZHAN RIOTS 14:54
MOSCOW, May 13 RIA Novosti) - Russian political scientists believe that riots in Andizhan, Uzbekistan, will not escalate into a revolution, and that they will be quelled.
According to Russian analysts, President Islam Karimov, who is criticized by the West for infringing upon democratic freedoms, will resolutely quell such unrest.
"The Uzbek regime, which has resolutely crushed all attempted resistance in the past, will do the same today," professor Andranik Migranyan from the Moscow Institute of International Relations believes.
Andizhan rebels, who seized a number of key administrative buildings, and who released local prison inmates, called on Russia to mediate the conflict for the sake of avoiding bloodshed. Troops have moved into the city, Andizhan sources noted. Andizhan is located in Fergana valley that links Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike Kyrgyzstan, no revolutionary situation has so far shaped up in Uzbekistan. For their own part, Kyrgyz elites became discontent with weak president Askar Akayev in conditions of developed democratic institutions. Akayev was overthrown as a result.
"There is no revolutionary situation for lack of external influence and clear-cut discontent of national elites," Migranyan added.
On the contrary, Sergei Mikheyev from the Center for Political Technologies believes that some Uzbek forces would like to overthrow Karimov or to destabilize the situation.
"Karimov no longer offers well-balanced support for local elites. Consequently, inter-clan clashes are possible. Moreover, Uzbekistan is seriously influenced by Islamists and drug barons. Islamism and drug barons are one and the same thing today," Mikheyev told RIA Novosti.
Talking to the mass media, the instigators claim that they are linked with the Akramiya organization that was established by Akram Yuldashev. Yuldashev was sentenced to 15 years in prison for extremism and terrorism. However, local human-rights activists are saying that he is a political prisoner. Twenty-three Akramiya members have stood trial in Andizhan since February.
Mikheyev is also sure that Karimov will use force in order to prevent riots from spreading. "Karimov is now making it clear that the preservation of power is his main goal. Karimov will re-establish law and order, disregarding the price," the expert on Central Asia believes.
Note - previous posts had material translated by me, but these were all provided in English by RIA Novosti - they have some fast-working translators over there. Credit where credit is due.
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