The most important thing....

[image source - a Wired story about how espionage just doesn't pay like it used to]

The headline below is correct - clearly, spies are about to become the most important thing.



Vedomosti
June 28, 2010
SECURITY IS NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING [translation from JRL]
At the summit in Washington: Russia is more interested in economic and technological cooperation with the US
Author: Alexei Nikolsky, Natalia Kostenko

Only four of the ten joint statements of Dmitry Medvedev and Barack Obama released after completion of the visit of the President of Russia to the US are connected with international security. The parties confirmed the need for ratification of the treaty on reduction of strategic offensive arms (START) signed in Prague in April and agreed to continue exchange of data about missile launches and creation of a system of global monitoring of these launches in the future and spoke "in favor of strengthening of the regime of control over conventional arms in Europe." The latter means solving of the problems related to the conventional forces in Europe treaty (CFE). Russia froze its participation in the CFE in 2007 after the new NATO members refused to ratify its modified version. The US and Russia also adopted a statement on combating of terrorism (it was decided to organize joint military exercises), on Afghanistan (transit there through Russia will be broadened) and on Kyrgyzstan (for the soonest stabilization and establishment of democracy). A source in the Russian delegation says that the statement on Kyrgyzstan means that both countries that have military bases in Kyrgyzstan will abstain from unilateral steps and will have consultations about the measures that should lead to destabilization of the situation.

Of the remaining six statements two have a humanitarian nature and four deal with economy and development of technologies, for example, entrance into WTO. The two agreements on Skolkovo signed during the visit of Medvedev are dedicated to the same topics.

According to the source in the Russian delegation, the statements in the field of security were promoted by the American party more, whereas the Russian delegation put an emphasis on economic cooperation. The source added that the US persistently proposed continuation of nuclear disarmament in the form of the measures for limitation of tactical nuclear weapons, but Moscow looked at this process more cautiously and was not sure that it would receive benefits from it.

Dean of MGIMO Ivan Safranchuk says that such attitude of Moscow is quite explainable. Security topics related to nuclear weapons and third countries like Iran, North Korea and Afghanistan have dominated in the Russian-American relations for a long time. Having adopted a course at modernization, Russia saw a different benefit in relations with the US and was not enthusiastic about a return to recalculation of warheads.

USDRUB

The ruble made a dramatic, if predicted, move lower today. Below is an article from Vedomosti on the subject as well as a link to their slideshow documenting the evolution of the dollar-ruble rate over the years. You can track the rate using Google Finance here.

35 руб. за доллар Сегодня на российском валютном рынке вновь драматические события — рубль дешевеет с самого начала торгов. Курсы доллара и евро в ходе торговой сессии (расчеты «сегодня») достигали 35 руб. и 45,88 руб. — оба значения исторические максимумы. Далее

Как менялся курс доллара Сентябрь 1999. Фото: Е. Стецко

And a post on businessneweurope's Moscow Blog asks, "Is it really that bad?"

Black PR or market manipulation?

This fake ad (image source - advertka LJ community) was apparently stuck up all over the Moscow metro in recent days. It appears to be an exhortation by TV personality Vladimir Soloviov to invest in Sberbank. The text above the photo reads, "In 2008 I made $2,000,000 with Sberbank." And below the photo, "You can do it too! After all, I'm just as ordinary as you."

Soloviov, who appears to be even more self-absorbed than your average TV host, is convinced that this is part of a campaign to discredit him in the eyes of the public, alleging that it's government-funded. And perhaps it is, I don't know what controversies he's been embroiled in as of late, and the text of the "ad" is not exactly flattering to Soloviov (the final line could also be translated as "I'm just as simple as you."

My first thoughts (most likely incorrect but more interesting than a theory as mundane as black PR) upon reading about a fake ad using a public figure to pump the idea of investing in Sberbank were (1) maybe someone's trying a low-budget way to goose SBER's share price (but it's not as if the Moscow Metro is full of retail investors in the stock market); and (2) I doubt that anyone made $2m on Sberbank last year, unless it was by short-selling the stock, which since the start of 2008 has underperformed even the collapsing RTS index.


[UPDATE 1/29: having seen this additional (obviously fake) ad involving Soloviov, which shows him promoting a sketchy-looking weight-loss method, I am more inclined to agree that someone is just trying to make him look bad.]

South Ossetian Shakeup?

«Не место этому президенту в Южной Осетии» // Бывший секретарь совбеза республики о конфликте с Эдуардом Кокойты Герой войны в Южной Осетии, бывший секретарь совбеза республики АНАТОЛИЙ БАРАНКЕВИЧ рассказал спецкору “Ъ” ОЛЬГЕ АЛЛЕНОВОЙ о причинах своего увольнения, конфликте с президентом Кокойты, а также о кадровой и экономической политике Цхинвала. открыть материал ...

Kommersant has run a lengthy interview with former Russian army general and former South Ossetian de facto Minister of Defense which puts the region's president, former wrestling champion and phys. ed. teacher Eduard Kokoity, in a rather unflattering light.

General Anatoly Barankevich is one of the examples cited in recent years by Western observers in order to highlight the fact that South Ossetian secessionism at some point shifted from "self-determination" to a situation where the determination of key personnel appointments took place in Moscow. There were other former (or seconded) Russian officers serving in the territory's de facto government, but he was among the most prominent. And now he has come out with an interview mocking Kokoity's flight from Tskhinvali during the five-day war and relating tales of a reconstruction effort paralyzed by corruption.

One of the more damning excerpts reads as follows (my translation, hopefully Kommersant will put this on their English-language website but they haven't done so yet) - Barankevich is relating a scene he observed at a police station in Dzhava on August 10th:

And then I saw the following picture: a Georgian prisoner with his hands tied and shirt off, his hands had already gone blue, you couldn't see his eyes, he couldn't even cry, and the [South Ossetian] militants [бойцы, apparently police officers - trans.] were beating him. I went over to them and said, "What are you doing? You are mountain men [горцы - implying, apparently, that they should hew to some code of honor - trans.]. You can't beat a prisoner, his hands are tied." They looked embarrassed and said, "Sorry, comrade General."

I told them to go get someone from the KGB. To take the Georgian away. Right away they untied his hands. And then the president showed up. He saw me, saw the prisoner and understood what was going on. And the first thing he did was run up to the prisoner and start kicking him. It turned my stomach. The guys from the police looked at the ground, they were ashamed.

Without wanting to engage in too much Kremlinological tea-leaf-reading, one wonders what the publication of this interview means, given that it was published in a newspaper owned by Alisher Usmanov, the Kremlin-friendly oligarch and debt collector for Gazprom who - no doubt out of the goodness of his heart, and certainly not to win a natural resource tender - ponied up a billion rubles in aid for the post-war rebuilding effort in South Ossetia in September.

I somehow doubt that Eduard Kokoity is feeling comfortable in his presidential chair.

Cause and effect, a.k.a. "диктатура закона"

Cause:

"Mechel was selling steel in Russia at twice the price it put on exports," Putin said in televised comments. "And where has the margin for the state taxes gone?"

Mechel's owner, billionaire Igor Zyuzin, was reportedly ill and not present at the meeting to hear Putin's threat.

"The director has been invited, and he suddenly became ill,'' Putin said. "Of course, illness is illness, but I think he should get well as soon as possible. Otherwise, we will have to send him a doctor and clean up all the problems." [...]

"I'm asking the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service to pay special attention to the problem -- and maybe even the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor General's Office."

Watch the video. As one of the commenters at drugoi's post on this topic noted, it's not just the words, it's the intonation - and, I would add, the gestures. And the swift official follow-up. No doubt "А маржа где?" will soon become a catchphrase in Moscow OCG and high finance circles alike.


Effect:

[source]

More narrative on the fallout here, here and here. No doubt someone made a bundle. Talk about bread and circuses.