Krizis v Kieve?

Looks like it may be an interesting weekend in Ukraine. Andy has a post that looks like it could start a comment debate. Veronica has photos and will not doubt have more as the weekend wears on - as long as her internet service is squared away!

An interesting tidbit I've just culled from Google News - the Georgian foreign minister is on a two-day visit to Ukraine and has met with Yanukovich. Not that it has anything directly to do with the current domestic crisis, mind you. But Ukraine's role in the GUAM organization (often described as a "counterweight" to Russian influence in the area Russia sees as its "near abroad") seems like it must be relevant to the domestic political situation there, because - at least as it seems from afar - so much of the back-and-forth going on in Ukraine in recent years has been about the fundamental question of whether the country will integrate with Europe or gravitate back towards Russia, or whether some sort of balancing act will be possible.

An interesting thing about GUAM is that with Uzbekistan's withdrawal from the organization, it now contains four post-Soviet countries - Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Moldova - which have all had issues with secessionist regions. In each of the four current GUAM members, Russia has played a role in supporting the region(s) attempting to break away. While in Crimea this has so far been limited mostly to words and to stunts like Dmitri Rogozin showing up at the Kerch Strait a few years ago, there are still a lot of Russians who think that Crimea should belong to them (that link is to a rather outdated survey, from 2001, but still...).

This is not always discussed in Western analysis of the organization but is clearly something that the members see themselves as having in common (see, for example, this joint declaration referring to "aggressive separatism" and "unresolved conflicts"). The GUAM charter emphasized that the organization's role is "promoting stability and strengthening security in Europe on the basis of principles of respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity, inviolability of the state borders, democracy, rule of law and respect for human rights." Note the emphasis on European orientation and combating secessionism. But I digress. It will be interested to see what develops this weekend in Kiev/Kyiv.