Wednesday, May 25, 2005

Russia: Stop picking on Karimov!

This story almost got drowned out by the power outage hullabaloo:

Russia says UN, NATO calls for Uzbek probe 'unfair'
Wed May 25, 2005 8:52 AM ET

ARE, Sweden (Reuters) - Russia on Wednesday denounced as unfair a call by the United Nations and NATO for an international investigation into a military crackdown in Uzbekistan, in which hundreds of people may have died.

Moscow backs the Uzbek government in blaming the bloodshed in the town of Andizhan earlier this month on radical Islamists. [...]

"Putting forward a demand for an international investigation as an ultimatum is neither appropriate nor fair," said Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Vladimir Chizhov at a meeting of NATO countries and partner states in Sweden. [...]

"We are gathered here as partners and partnership means trust. If one partner says it can carry out an investigation itself, that should be respected," Chizhov told reporters.

"The countries calling for an international investigation recently competed with each other hailing Uzbekistan's role as a key player in the global anti-terrorist coalition. Now they realize who they were dealing with," he said.
Presumably Russia would like the US to replicate its reprehensible mid-1990's stance on Chechnya and say that this is Uzbekistan's "internal affair."

But it will be interesting to see whether the last sentences quoted are much talked about - this Russian Deputy Foreign Minister seems to be saying, "lay off the Uzbeks, you knew Karimov was capable of this and so did we." He may have a point, but at least the West is half-heartedly demanding an investigation. Russia, on the other hand, appears to be standing shoulder-to-shoulder with
China in its response to the events in Andijan.

After the outages...

...comes the finger-pointing. Looks like for now most of it is in Chubais's direction, which is to be expected. The nationalist political party Rodina has already weighed in:

Rodina faction to demand resignation of UES head in Duma
May 25 2005 5:52PM MSK

MOSCOW. May 25 (Interfax) - The Duma's Rodina faction plans to raise the issue of dismissing Anatoly Chubais from the post of head of Unified Energy Systems (UES) at the Friday meeting of the lower house. "We have been saying for a long time that Chubais is the wrong person to head such a major monopoly and the outages in Moscow today only prove that we are right," said Ivan Kharchenko, faction member and deputy chairman of the Duma property committee. Kharchenko said the faction would have an emergency conference on Thursday over the large-scale energy crisis in Moscow and initiate the ouster of Chubais at the Duma Council.
No doubt the professional pundits will be all over this by the time tomorrow morning's Moscow Times op-ed page goes to press, but I have to wonder when one of these stories about blaming Chubais will mention what an easy political target he is, due to his extreme unpopularity with the Russian electorate. So far, the blame game looks like a way for Rodina to score some easy points with elderly and lower-income people who are bitter about rising power costs; and for Putin to try to cripple Chubais's chances (if he even has any) of mounting a challenge or playing a role in the upcoming 2008 presidential succession battle (I hesitate to use the word "campaign").

What challenges such as Rodina's miss is the fact that changing the management of UES will not change the fact that the country continues to squeeze the last drops out of infrastructure improvements made during Soviet times (in this case, the plant that failed was over 40 years old), without any comprehensive plan to replace these facilities as they age beyond their usable lifespan. While Chubais has to bear some of the responsibility for failing to prevent these outages, he can't possibly be blamed for the overall situation.

Update: In addition to a sincere-sounding apology, Chubais has come out with a couple of comments - one pointing out that the power outages in the US a couple of years ago were much more serious than what happened in Moscow today; and one pointing out that investment in the country's electrical supply infrastructure has been underfunded for decades. These statements will no doubt be criticized in coming days, as the latter one already has - "With the growth of electricity tariffs that we've seen recently, this is a quite a cynical statement," said Andrei Isaev, chairman of the Duma's Labor and Social Policy committee. (all of those links are to brief RIA Novosti wire items in Russian)

Look out, Anatoly Borisovich!

From Reuters:

Putin slams power monopoly after big Moscow outage
Wed May 25, 2005 9:23 AM ET, By Christian Lowe

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Moscow was plunged into chaos on Wednesday after a big power outage that President Vladimir Putin blamed on the state-owned electricity monopoly headed by a liberal politician viewed with suspicion by the Kremlin. [...]

Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko said the breakdown was caused by a fire and explosion overnight at an electricity substation. There was no evidence of a terrorist attack, he said.

But Putin, who delayed a provincial trip because of the crisis, pointed the finger at the management of Unified Energy System whose chief executive is Anatoly Chubais, one of the architects of the post-Soviet market revolution whose liberal views sit uneasily with Kremlin hard-liners.

"It is entirely possible to talk about a lack of attention on the part of RAO UES to the current activity of the company."

"They should work not only on global problems about company policy and its restructuring, but also pay attention to current activity," Putin said in televised remarks.

Chubais, one of Russia's best known figures who survived an assassination attempt in March, was quoted as saying he accepted full responsibility for the outage.

Putin was clearly suggesting that Chubais was spending too much time on his widely-publicised plans for a corporate restructuring of the electricity behemoth and was losing sight of the operational running of the firm. [...]

While he has generally refrained from open criticism of Kremlin policy, Chubais was one of the few public figures inside Russia to condemn the prosecution of oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky who is on trial for fraud and tax evasion.

Chubais may soon be looking for people to condemn his own prosecution:

Russia opens criminal case against UES management
Wed May 25, 2005 10:05 AM ET

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russian prosecutors on Wednesday opened a criminal case against the management of power monopoly Unified Energy System (UES) after a major power outage in Moscow, Interfax news agency reported.

The case was opened to investigate possible negligence, the agency quoted the prosecutor general's office as saying.

Under Russian law, prosecutors must formally open a criminal case to allow police fully to investigate the incident. It does not necessarily lead to prosecution.

President Vladimir Putin has already blamed UES Chief Executive Anatoly Chubais for the power cut which left much of the capital without power, saying management had neglected the company's problems to concentrate on a restructuring plan.

Chubais, a leading political liberal who is spearheading the reform of the electricity giant, is viewed with suspicion by Kremlin hard-liners.

He seems to wisely be trying to get out in front of the issue:

Chubais ready to bear responsibility for Moscow power outages
May 25 2005 4:19PM

MOSCOW. May 25 (Interfax) - Unified Energy Systems (UES) CEO Anatoly Chubais told reporters in response to President Vladimir Putin's criticism of the UES management that he was ready to bear responsibility for the trouble in power supplies in Moscow.

"UES and its chairman are responsible for energy supplies," he said. "I am not shirking responsibly," he said.

Chubais said he was aware of the presidential criticism adding, "there can be no difference of opinion on that."

"It is my key task in the next few hours to revive power supplies. Everything else will be done later," he said.

Power outage - RIA Novosti's apparently comprehensive update

A thorough rundown of what's known about the outages in Moscow today is available here in Russian. I've paraphrased it in English below.

To sum it up, Energy Minister Khristenko has now stated that the initial cause of the outage was a fire at the Chagino substation just outside of Moscow. Sources say that the fire was due to aged equipment at the substation, which was brought on-line in 1963.

As a result, cascading outage took place, which was brought under control by 13.09 today, according to RAO UES, and Moscow is currently operating with access to 10% less electricity than required. Large "mega" stores on the outskirts of the city closed en masse, leading to huge traffic jams, and some stores downtown are closed as well.

In addition, telephone service was out for a time in the south-western part of the city, but all of the capital's airports continued to operate normally, and 95% of those stranded in the metro have already been evacuated without casualties.

RIA Novosti also reports Khristenko's claim that these outages are not due to the activity of terrorists.

No doubt this will all be blamed, by the public if not by the authorities, on RAO UES CEO Anatoly Chubais.

More on Moscow power outages - in English

The Western wires are picking up the story - Reuters quotes Energy Minister Khristenko saying that the outage was caused by an unspecified explosion at an unspecified power substation.

BBC News quotes a RAO UES spokesperson saying that the cause was a fire at a substation and goes on to speculate that the outage may have been exacerbated by the hot weather creating increased power demand.

MosNews also has the
story covered in English.

More on power outages in Moscow

The MICEX exchange suspended trading for two hours today because traders were having trouble contacting the exchange.

Apparently the cause of the outage was a fire at and failure of a power station in Tula - sounds like something similar to what happened when a failure at a facility in Cleveland triggered the outages in New York two years ago.


It's possible that the fire and possible release of pollutants into the atmosphere that occurred last night at a large Moscow oil refinery was also related to this outage.

People in the city are very concerned, some are reacting with panic to the situation. Other events, perhaps not linked to the power outages, seem to be feeding that sense of concern. I've heard reports from colleagues of fires at the VDNKh (VVTs expo center) and at the Soviet Army Theater. In addition, looking outside, it appears that a big thunderstorm is also bearing down on the city.


Several of the websites that Muscovites check for news are still inaccessible, presumably due to being overloaded by news-hungry citizens.

Power outages in Moscow strand thousands in Metro

Power outages in several regions of Moscow have stopped public transit in its tracks and stranded people trying to get around the city in the middle of a minor heat wave. Echo of Moscow and Lenta.ru websites are currently inaccessible (to me, anyway), probably overloaded with people checking on the situation, RIA Novosti reports that 15 hospitals were left without power and that people are being evacuated from those portions of the metro that were left without power. RIA Novosti's most recent English-language report (I couldn't access the text of this page for a few minutes, either) is headlined "Close to 20,000 people stuck in metro tunnel over power outage":

MOSCOW, May 25, 13.07 (RIA Novosti) - "Forty-three trains are stuck in the metro line section from Serpukhovskaya station to Bulvar Dmitriya Donskogo. There are a total of 20,000 passengers in the tunnel," the Moscow Metro's press service told reporters.

On the RBC wire I see that RAO UES does not exclude the possibility of terrorist involvement, although that seems far-fetched at this point.

Tuesday, May 24, 2005

Milestone

At 4:28 this morning, Moscow time, "Scraps of Moscow" logged its 10,000th visitor. Not a very big deal on the internet in this day and age - many sites get that much traffic in a day or less - but it feels noteworthy to me. The milestone visitor happened to be someone located in San Diego, California, who has been a frequent visitor recently (5 times in the last week or so). Thanks to all of you for coming by to visit.

Joke of the day

Just emailed to me by a Russian friend under the subject line above:

Khodorkovsky has been sentenced to listen to his own sentence for life.
Dark humor, Soviet-style - it's back...

I heard on the radio this morning (
Sergei Bountman's monologue on Echo of Moscow Radio) about a new wrinkle in the circus surrounding the Khodorkovsky trial. Anyone observing this event in the media has already heard about the hundreds of police officers at the courthouse daily, the pro-Khodorkovsky protesters beaten and arrested, and the anti-Khodorkovsky protesters installed in their place, not to mention the irregularities going on inside the courthouse. The news from yesterday is that the Moscow city authorities have picked this time to conduct "previously scheduled" road work on the stretch of road just in front of the courthouse. Bountman goes on to criticize the authorities' conduct of the circus surrounding the trial (I've translated this part; the rest is available in Russian at the link above):

But one question remains, and it's not an idle one. Guys, if this is just a regular criminal court proceeding, if this is a clear-cut case of fraud, then why are you making such a fuss about it? Why did you wave your nightsticks a week ago, why did you deploy three cordons of guards and all of those trucks? Are you expecting Shamil' Basayev and his posse? Why do your eyes start darting around when people ask simple questions? And for whom did you set out the so-called [anti-Khodorkovsky] "general public" like hedgerows, for Bush and Schroeder? And if you're so tough and sure of yourselves, really, why do your eyes keep darting around? The way you're doing it looks so petty and pitiful. You can see the threads sticking out. Like blue jeans made in Sovok [the USSR - the last sentence reads even better in Russian: "Блу джинс маде ин совок." ].
Update - the New York Times noted this new development in their story about the trial today as well ("For Russians, a Looming Verdict, and Heavy Equipment," by Steven Lee Myers):

When the [pro-Khodorkovsky] protesters arrived Monday morning, bulky construction machinery already occupied the side of Kalanchevskaya Street where others had assembled each day last week, undaunted by the grit and noise of road repair, to denounce what they called the government's selective prosecution of Mr. Khodorkovsky.

Kalanchevskaya, like most of Moscow's streets, certainly could use the work, but the timing and location of the repairs - directly opposite the courthouse - at least raised the question of selective reconstruction.

"The authorities seem to be afraid," Yelena L. Liptser, a lawyer for Mr. Khodorkovsky's partner and co-defendant, Platon Lebedev, said during a break in the proceeding, "but I do not know what they fear."

The trial, now in its 12th month, has often been called a test of the strength of Russia's judicial system. The rendering of a verdict, now in its second week, is revealing some of the system's absurdities.

The court's three judges resumed Monday, for a sixth day, the task of reading aloud a verdict said to be more than a thousand pages long (though accompanied now by the pounding of jackhammers instead of the chants of Mr. Khodorkovsky's supporters, as happened last week).

"Numbered toe tags" - the NYT on Andijan

This New York Times article ("Toe Tags Offer Clues to Uzbeks' Uprising," by C.J. Chivers, from yesterday's paper - you'll have to register to read it, but it's worth it) has one of the most even-handed accounts of what took place there that I've seen yet.

The most interesting information that I hadn't seen elsewhere was about another way of calculating the death toll:

The scale of death is fiercely contested. Mr. Karimov said 32 Uzbek troops and 137 other people had been killed. An opposition party says that at least 745 civilians died in Andijon and Pakhtaabad, a border town, the next day. The International Helsinki Federation for Human Rights, a Vienna-based group, says Uzbek troops may have killed 1,000 unarmed people.

An independent visit to Andijon by a photographer working for The New York Times also found indications that the death toll was much larger than Mr. Karimov has said. Bullet-riddled bodies were returned to families with numbered toe tags and certificates, families told the photographer and her translator. The numbers on the tags, they said, ranged from the teens to the hundreds.

And although the government has since tried to collect the certificates, they said, two families retained them and showed them to the photographer. One was No. 284. The other, which accompanied the remains of Rakhmatula Nadirov, 30, was 378. The same number was written on the dead man's leg, his mother said.
The article also has survivors' accounts of the demonstration in Andijan and of the flight of some of the demonstrators into Kyrgyzstan. It is a must-read if you are trying to stay current on the situation. Don't overlook it just because it's the "mainstream media," not surprisingly they are often better equipped than bloggers to cover stories in remote areas.

A note on frequency of posting

I'm trying to get back to a more normal intensity of posting - 3 or 4 times a week rather than 3 or 4 times a day - so that my other commitments don't go by the boards. For more frequent updates on the situation in Uzbekistan (and the rest of the region as well, of course) as well as the collective wisdom of Nathan's readers (in the comments), check out Registan.net.

I hope to be back on the Andijan story with some translated material later in the week that hopefully won't lose its currency by then. And, as I've been saying for several days now, I will eventually get back to the original focus of this blog, which is life/current events in Moscow and Russia. The next month or two is going to be a busy time for me, though, as I prepare to move back to the US (yes, the rumors are true...), so updates in this space may not be as frequent as I might like.

Friday, May 20, 2005

How Andijan is playing in Russia

From yesterday's Eurasia Daily Monitor:

UZBEKISTAN'S RIOTS YIELD MIXED RESPONSE IN RUSSIA
By
Sergei Blagov
Thursday, May 19, 2005

[...] Russian politicians appear split over the situation in Uzbekistan. Dmitry Rogozin, head of Rodina party, claimed that Karimov became a target of radical Islamists when he allowed U.S. military bases on Uzbek soil. Konstantin Zatulin of the pro-Kremlin United Russia party argued that Karimov "did it all right" to forestall destabilization. Alexei Mitrofanov, deputy of the Liberal-Democratic party, blamed U.S. interference in Afghanistan for general destabilization across Central Asia.

Yet, Sergei Mitrokhin of Yabloko warned against Russian support for the Karimov regime, which could trigger civil war in Uzbekistan. Boris Nemtsov, of the Union of Right Forces, picked up this notion and argued that the Karimov regime was doomed and that by supporting Karimov the Kremlin had picked a loosing scenario, as it had in Ukraine. [...]
It's interesting to see that each of the Russian politicians mentioned in the first two paragraphs came up with an interpretation of the crisis that fit his own worldview. Sort of like the old joke about different people blindly feeling different parts of an elephant and coming up with totally different conclusions about what it is. Rogozin finds a way to blame both the US and Islamists; the United Russia guy provides a scary look inside the mind of Russia's leadership today, though hopefully Russia would not actually handle a crisis like Andijan the way Karimov did; the LDPR guy stays in character with an implausible, verging on outlandish, theory about the causes behind Andijan; and the politicians belonging to the fractious group of Russian "liberals" stay on-message by concluding that the Kremlin is doing things wrong. The article continues:

Russian media outlets were divided over the Andijan crisis. Some, like NTV and RenTV channels, were critical of Karimov's crackdown and questioned the wisdom of the Kremlin's support of Karimov. The second group, notably official media outlets, tacitly backed Uzbek authorities and suggested continued Russian support of Karimov's "secular regime." The third group highlighted broader geopolitical maneuverings as crucial factors behind the Uzbek riots.

Initially, the mainstream media in Russia, notably First Channel and RTR television, appeared to be siding with Karimov and interpreted the events in Uzbekistan mainly as a plot by Islamic extremists. The one-sided view seen on Russia's major television channels earned a measure of criticism from other Russian media outlets. Izvestiya ran a series of articles, headlined: "Events in Uzbekistan: Popular revolt or extremist rebellion?" The daily described events in Andijan as a revolution, adding that the coverage by Russian official media outlets was somewhat detached from reality. Izvestiya specifically criticized Russian First Channel, which merely followed Uzbek official statements, described Uzbek protesters as extremists, and ignored alternative versions of the Andijan events (Izvestiya, May 17).

Presumably responding to such criticism, the First Channel on Tuesday reported not only the official death toll of 169 for Andijan, but also mentioned unofficial estimate of 745 fatalities (TV First Channel, May 17).
Check out the rest of the article for more on Russian newspaper coverage of the situation in Uzbekistan.

Protest at the Russian embassy in Tashkent

From Ferghana.Ru's English-language page:

Uzbek women organized a picket in front of the Russian Embassy in Tashkent protesting against Moscow's support of Islam Karimov
Ferghana.Ru, Andrei Kudryashov (Tashkent), 19.05.2005

"We came to express our protest against the biased coverage of the tragic events in Andizhan by ORT and NTV channels of the Russian television," Gavkhar Aripova, leader of Uzbek human rights organization Ozod Ael [Free Women], told journalists before the Russian Embassy on May 19. "Mikhail Leontiev (
http://www.1tv.ru/owa/win/ort6_main.main?p_news_razdel_id=100 Odnako program anchorman) either does not know the first thing about the situation in Uzbekistan or shamelessly acts on political orders of unscrupulous government of Russia that backs Islam Karimov's regime. Enough of the claims that it is Islamists and terrorists who rise against the authorities of Uzbekistan. Ordinary people will no longer tolerate impoverishment, starvation, unemployment, crib deaths, and coercive sterilization of women in the Ferghana Valley with the help of which the regime is trying to solve economic and social problems. Uzbek women, old men, and children are in the streets nowadays because they are fed up with hopelessness while their men are already jailed or harassed. The Russians have always supported the Uzbek people. As for Leontiev and others like him, give them Orders of Pinochet or something even though not even Pinochet ordered his soldiers to fire at children like Karimov's soldiers did in Andizhan on May 13."

"Look at us! Are we Islamists?" Tatiana Dovlatova asked journalists. "We only want no more harassment of citizens of Uzbekistan, regardless of their ethnic origins, for the smallest disagreement with the authorities. We want our human rights. We urge Russian women - if their men, politicians and journalists, are impotent - to support us and organize protests in front of the Embassy of Uzbekistan in Moscow." [...]

Organizers of the protest action say that dozens of women intended to participate but most of them were intercepted by the police. A group of 9 women ended up in a police van barely 100 meters from the Embassy. [...] It was men passing by who helped the women to unfold placards "Mothers of Andizhan - We Are With You!" and "Remember, Russia: Uzbek Cotton is Saturated with Blood!"Cars driving own Nukusskaya Street began pulling over, their passengers and drivers shouting to the protesters, "Right! Let Russia discover the truth!" The police then asked the protesters to leave the roadway for the sidewalk. Dialogue with pedestrians continued there. The latter supported the protesters. Seeing, however, that foreign camera crews were not the only ones to film the proceedings, that Uzbek secret services were filming the proceedings too, they immediately walked away.
So, Karimov has come out with harsh criticism of Russian TV coverage, and now so have these anti-Karimov protesters. This isn't as strange as it looks at first glance. For one thing, Karimov was most critical of NTV's coverage, and the opposition is strongly criticizing the other two major Russian channels, Channel 1 (ORT) and RTR. Also, my interpretation (partially cribbed from the Vremia Novostei piece that I translated late last night) of Karimov's criticism is that it's intended to "discredit the sources of information which Uzbek citizens were able to access," i.e., Russian TV channels (even though, as has been reported, the ability to view Russian TV news reports in Uzbekistan has been far from universal since last Friday the 13th). He knows he won't be able to completely keep people from seeing these news sources or control their coverage, so he's just trying to discredit them generally without regard for the tone of their coverage.

The opposition, on the other hand, has watched the coverage on certain Russian TV channels (ORT/Channel 1 and RTR) and become outraged with the tone of commentary provided by people like
ORT's Leontiev. Parenthetically, Leontiev, in my opinion, is a reflexively pro-Kremlin hack - my irritation at his misrepresentations has often been exacerbated by his infuriatingly smug way of delivering his monologues, although I watch his TV appearances much more rarely nowadays - so I can understand the irritation even though I haven't seen a text of his commentary on Andijan.

One other thought about this article - a couple of days ago in
some comments at Registan.net, I expressed the (admittedly not as informed as I would like) opinion that it would be possible for Karimov to retain power, barring further unrest, by ratcheting up his repressive measures and retaining the support of at least Russia from the outside world. It now looks to me, though, like the opposition within Uzbekistan may be more determined in making the demand for an independent investigation of what happened in Andijan, together with the demands from several countries (including the US) and international organizations (including the UN). Maybe it will emerge that the Andijan events really were provoked by a militant and/or Islamist group, and that most or all of the dead belong to that group, but I don't think anyone will be satisfied with that conclusion if it's reached by an investigation run by the Uzbek government without substantial, independent outside involvement.

More on Uzbekistan

Yes, there's still more. For the seeming dearth of facts about the actual number of people who perished in Andijan last week, there certainly continues to be a healthy amount of media coverage of the story. Here are a couple of items of interest:

WHO IS BEHIND ANDIJAN UNREST AND WILL IT SPREAD TO KYRGYZSTAN? 18:39 19.05.2005

MOSCOW. (RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov) - [...] The question of who is to blame for the high death toll in Andijan, President Islam Karimov or rebels, can soon be replaced with a more acute and unnerving one: Will the developments in Andijan trigger similar events in Osh? There were fierce clashes there 15 years ago.

The authorities in the two republics, which were then part of the Soviet Union, suppressed the 1990 conflict between ethnic Kyrgyz and Uzbeks, who had coexisted in Osh for centuries. However, there were many casualties: 155 people died and 845 were injured. It is highly likely that ethnic clashes will again erupt there today, only this time on a far greater scale. [...]

The Andizhan unrest can hardly be said to utterly unexpected. The socioeconomic situation in the Fergana Valley has been a sore point for Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan since the Soviet times. It is an overpopulated area suffering from a shortage of land and water for irrigation. The excess of workforce - about 1.5 million people aged 17 to 25 in the Uzbek-dominated part of the valley alone - became a particular problem after the collapse of the Soviet Union. [...]

President Karimov can be accused of being a tyrant whose regime has committed massive human rights violations. However, criticizing the regime without advancing alternatives is easy. The policy he has pursued is designed to maintain stability in the republic. Karimov has repeatedly indicated that steps need to be taken to gradually liberalize the economy and political regime in Uzbekistan, even to the detriment of the local elites supporting him.
The last graf I included not because I agree with it, but because it's valuable to see all perspectives here.

On Thursday evening, Moscow time,
RIA Novosti reported UN sources saying that Karimov had refused the UN's request to conduct an independent investigation of the tragic events at Andijan (article is in Russian).

Switzerland has
decided to "reconsider continuation of development cooperation in Uzbekistan," according to TRIBUNE-uz (in English).

According to Turkey's
Anadolu News Agency, NATO's Secretary-General is "'Awfuly Worried' About Uzbek Violence."

An AP report (picked up by The Scotsman, among others) quotes US Gen. John Abizaid, head of CENTCOM, as saying that
the US is "Scaling Back Uzbekistan Operations." I was unable to find the full transcript of these remarks on the press section of the US Department of Defense website. RIA Novosti picked this story up as well (in Russian).

Negative reaction to Andijan visit

I've spent a fair bit of time translating this article from Russian newspaper Vremia Novostei (the site has a page which aggregates the paper's several recent articles on the situation in Uzbekistan, including one early one cleverly titled "Islam against Karimov?"), which I happened to pick up on the plane back from London today.

I have sown some of the key words in the article with links to more information, much more so than I usually do with articles I translate. Hopefully people will find this to be useful and informative.

The sometimes-sarcastic, sometimes-chatty tone of this article is typical for Russian newspapers in general and this one in particular, and that articles like this one give the lie to blanket statements about the Russian press being monolithically pro-Russian government.
"Tashkent must 'submit a sample for analysis' – the world searches for the wellspring of the tragedy in Andijan." Vremia Novostei, No. 86 (19 May 2005), page 5, by Arkadii Dubnov

Yesterday the Uzbek authorities organized a charter flight from
Tashkent to Andijan for the diplomats and journalists who wanted to acquaint themselves with the situation in the city where bloody events took place May 12-14, claiming 170 victims, according to official information. As the President of Uzbekistan, Islam Karimov, felt it necessary to point out, the trip was “free of charge.” Apparently, he thought that this would be an additional stimulus for those individuals who are excited about the Andijan tragedy. In the words of Deutsche Welle Radio’s Tashkent correspondent Yurii Chernogaev, who took part in the trip, its participants “saw what they were shown.” This is not surprising, considering that Zokir Almatov, head of the country’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, was responsible for the trip, and it was he who acquainted the guests with the situation in Andijan and gave his assessment of what had happened in the city.

However, it differed little from those assessments which had been given the day before at a press conference in Tashkent by the head of state and the prosecutor-general of Uzbekistan.
Islam Karimov, as quoted by his http://www.uza.uz/eng/ Uzbek information agency UzA, stated that “not one peaceful resident was killed in Andijan…can anyone name the names of women, old men, or children, who were killed?”

Maybe for the time being no one can…but what about the information about “the deaths of two teenagers and three women,” which was being broadcast for a couple of days by official Tashkent? Clearly, they were also bandits. After all, right after this statement Mr. Karimov announced that “during the operation only bandits were killed, weapons were always found on or near their dead bodies.” Are we to understand, then, that weapons were also found next to the dead bodies of these women and teenagers, as well as next to the bodies of every one (!) of the official tally of 170 victims who were not members of law enforcement?

The Uzbek leader has said a great deal about the role of the press in covering the Andijan tragedy. “I don’t have any complaints about
Reuters, the BBC, CNN, or Radio “Deutsche Welle.” “I can disagree with their opinions or assessments,” said Mr. Karimov, “but I respect their work, which cannot be said about the Russian television channels which have been reproducing insinuations about the events in Andijan.” This statement was strange and not entirely consistent with elementary logic, to put it mildly. One may have many complaints about Russian TV, but among the “insinuations” they “reproduced” were numerous references to the very same media about which Mr. Karimov “has no complaints.”

It seems there is actually a different reason for the Uzbek president’s irritation. It was necessary for him to discredit the sources of information which Uzbek citizens were able to access one way or another. Among these, first and foremost were Russian television channels. It’s obvious, after all, that the average Uzbek citizen has no way to access the media “respected” by Karimov – CNN, Reuters, and the BBC.

Heading off the spread of “insinuations,” the Uzbek security forces demonstrated that they are quite well equipped technologically. Using the country’s mobile phone network operators, they were able to introduce additional settings, which automatically cut off telephone conversations upon the utterance by either party of the words “
Andijan,” “killed,” “casualty,” or “SNB” (the SNB is the National Security Service). The internet resource Ferghana.Ru announced yesterday that its correspondent had personally experienced the effects of this “censorship” while placing a mobile phone call from Andijan to Namangan. After a ten-minute conversation, the word “Andijanis” was said, and the connection immediately went dead. He was then not able to reach the other party to the conversation any more…

As far as the work of the media “respected” by the president of Uzbekistan, among which he named Radio “Deutsche Welle,” the May 8th edition of their program “Focus” is extremely important to an analysis of the reasons behind the Andijan uprising. Five days prior to the bloodshed, this radio station broadcast an interview with one of the accused in the trial taking place at that time in Andijan of “Akramiya,” the so-called Islamic sect whose members, once freed from jail, became some of the leaders of the uprising.

Here is what Mamudjon Kurbanov, the deputy director of Andijan
furniture-making concern Turon Production, had to say to Deutsche Welle’s correspondent: The SNB investigators “told us that they could do anything, and they said that even if I were to withstand their torture, they would go get my wife and would interrogate her in the room next door, and I would hear everything,” said Kurbanov. “They hinted at horrible things, you know, ‘you have a pretty wife,’ and so on, and I couldn’t stand it and signed a false statement.” Kurbanov was required to confess that he was a member of the “Akramiya” sect. According to him, the investigator’s case held that this “organization first attracts people by making them well-to-do, and then at some point they may become a threat to society."

But apparently the
SNB investigators had more prosaic motives for persecuting the so-called members of "Akramiya." Deutsche Welle reported that "as long ago as last year valuables, cellular phones, cash money, and also personal automobiles were confiscated from the homes of twenty of the arrested employees of Turon Production," moreover, this was done "without filing a proper protocol of confiscation." Recall that the events in Andijan started with a two-day protest in front of the courthouse where the trial of the "Akramiya" members was being conducted. People were demanding justice from the court. But official Tashkent is currently avoiding any examination of the details of how this protest turned into an armed uprising. Yesterday reports emerged that the protesters were fired on first by local SNB officials who showed up at the square under orders to disperse the crowd. This was reported by Deutsche Welle.

Also yesterday, the
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Louise Arbour urged "the conduct of an independent investigation into the causes and circumstances of the incidents in eastern Uzbekistan."

Benita Waldner, the European Commissioner for External Relations, issued a similar statement. "I join US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice in demanding an independent investigation," she said. "We need to know what really happened there in order to conduct an objective analysis."

This article is without a doubt the best account of why Karimov might have made his various comments about various media outlets.

Here's an article (in Russian) from Deutsche Welle's website titled "The foreigners were allowed to spend 3 hours in Andijan."

And a few more interesting links came up while I was translating and finding links with which to fill the article above:

The CNN link is to a fresh story (from May 19) on their website playing up claims by some human rights organizations of higher death tolls.

The EU's page on Central Asia - although it has links to news items items from 2004 and 2005 (the most recent is from early April) on the page, the "overview" says it was updated most recently in 2001. There's a page dealing with EU-Uzbekistan relationships and providing a backgrounder on Uzbekistan - last updated in March 2004.

If
this is not a joke, then it's scary. The link is to the SNB.uz website, which consists of one page with a camouflage background scheme, a link allowing visitors to the site to send in emails, and the following text, in Russian and Uzbek:

Please send in only objective information.

Absolutely all messages will be examined and taken into account.

All will be kept top-secret!!!
But I guess it could just be a joke.

Thursday, May 19, 2005

Worth reading

AFP - "Uzbek opposition group calls on leader to resign after crackdown"

Ferghana.Ru in English - "
The Akromians: a radical Islamic sect or respectable businessmen?"

News of the Weird - "
Serial murderer was among inmates released from Andizhan prison" - also from Ferghana.Ru's English-language page, which has somewhat more content these days.

Update on Korasuv

From the English-language RIA Novosti website:

UZBEKISTAN RESTORES BORDER CONTROL NEAR KARA-SUU 10:16 MSK

BISHKEK, MAY 19, (RIA Novosti) - Uzbek authorities restored border control near Kara-Suu, Kyrgyzstan, after completing talks with their Kyrgyz counterparts.

According to eye-witness reports, the checkpoint in the vicinity of the Shakhrikhansai river is now working as usual. People show their passports, subsequently crossing that bridge.

Kyrgyz border guards were forced to close this checkpoint because they could not cope with all those people wishing to cross the border. Uzbek authorities, who promised to restore border control, did nothing of the kind for several days.

The bridge across the Shakhrikhansai river was dismantled by Uzbek authorities two years ago. Protesters in Uzbekistan's Kurgan-Tyube district restored that bridge May 14. The Kyrgyz side alone has guarded the bridge since then.

Kara-Suu is the Kyrgyz section of Ilyichevsk that was divided between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan after the two countries received independence. The city's Uzbek section is called Karasu. The border passes along the river. Ethnic Uzbeks account for a considerable share of Kyrgyzstan's Osh-region population.
Here's another story on this in English from Netbreeze (seems to be a site where they change the links frequently, so that URL may not be permanent).

Update - David in the UK is blogging on this story.

Andijan inspection: "Potemkin villages" - Ferghana.Ru; US Ambassador critical?

Ive translated from Ferghana.Ru this account of the recent and widely reported observatory visit to Andijan, which includes their interpretation of remarks by US Ambassador Jon Purnell which I haven't seen reported anywhere else. Please see my comments about the veracity of their interpretation of Purnell's remarks at the bottom of this post.


US Ambassador: "The Uzbek authorities organized an 'excursion' for diplomats and journalists to Andijan"
Ferghana.Ru, Andrei Kudriashov (Tashkent), 18.05.2005 19.46 msk

In an interview with the "Akhborot" news show on Channel 1 of Uzbek State Television, United States Ambassador to Uzbekistan George Purnell [sic] unambiguously called the trip to Andijan organized May 18 by Uzbek authorities for foreign diplomats and selected journalists an "excursion."

"This was a very sad...excursion. It's good that the government of Uzbekistan organized it. But I have to say that this...excursion can only be a first step, after which there should be a more careful study and investigation about all of the circumstances surrounding the tragedy which took place in Andijan," said Purnell, looking into the TV camera and twice repeating the word ["excursion"] with a clear pause before the word [indicated by the ellipses - trans.], which made it clear to viewers that the diplomat did not misspeak due to poor knowledge of Russian, in which he is fluent; but rather expressed his position diplomatically yet firmly.

And the picture was not improved by the emotional interviews with the Turkmenistani and Algerian ambassadors which followed.

Viewers of the obviously propagandistic "Akhborota" program on Wednesday night also noticed that among the Russian journalists in Andijan were camera crews from only two channels - ORT and RTR [Russian Channel 1 and "Rossiia" or Channel 2, both of which are state-controlled - trans.] - that the people on the "excursion" met and spoke with members of the security forces and relatives of the policemen who perished in the incident; and that the streets of Andijan were absolutely empty as the motorcade carrying the official visitors passed.

Those Russian TV journalists who remained in Tashkent described their colleagues' trip to Andijan as "the deployment of a very limited contingent" of mass media. And a REN-TV camera crew, as has already been reported, left Uzbekistan on May 18 on the insistence of the local authorities and the recommendation of the Russian Embassy. An camera crew from NTV, which Islam Karimov knocked in his wide-ranging remarks at a press-conference, was also not allowed to participate in the touristic study of the "Potemkin villages" in the Andijan region. According to many journalists from foreign publications, the representatives of the media "saw only what they were shown."
It is a bit risky to translate Purnell's into English from Russian, since it's tough to know what he really meant or what words he would have used in English, and Ferghana.Ru's conclusion appears to rely on a nuanced interpretation of his word choice and manner of delivery. The key word in Ferghana.Ru's opinion is "экскурсия" (ekskursiia), which can be translated as "outing," "trip," "tour," or "excursion," and it's definitely a word which a non-native Russian-speaker (such as Purnell) might use to describe the visit to Andijan without implying any other meaning, even though there may be more appropriate words to describe such a visit which a native speaker might use. So I guess Purnell's delivery - the pause while looking into the TV camera - is the only real basis for this interpretation. Getting the Ambassador's name wrong does not exactly enhance the credibility of this article.

Also, remember that Ferghana.Ru does often spin stories in an anti-Uzbek-government way, editor Daniil Kislov's protestations to the contrary (
here in the last graf of the interview) notwithstanding, and I don't exclude the possibility that they are doing that in this case. So, this is either a real story, or it's a good example of Ferghana.Ru spin, in either case I thought it was worth sharing with a wider audience.

I found a few English-language accounts of this wannabe fact-finding trip, one of which quotes remarks made by Purnell - in
The Australian (which is VERY slow to load, for some reason) - and one of which paraphrases his reaction - in The Guardian - and neither of the stories mention these televised remarks. Reuters also reports on the visit, under the headline "Diplomats taken to Uzbek town, miss killing scene."

The website of the US Embassy in Tashkent does not have anything on the events in Andijan whatsoever at this point (that may be the right approach for them, so I'm not criticizing, just noting that I checked it because in my mind it's the logical place to look for a transcript of the Ambassador's remarks).

So I leave it up to readers to draw their own conclusions. We report, and you, uh, decide...sorry, I guess that motto is actually taken already.

Wednesday, May 18, 2005

Telephone conversations in Uzbekistan subject to "censorship" - Ferghana.ru

From Ferghana.Ru, translated by me:

Andijan: telephone communications in Uzbekistan are being blocked based on key phrases
IA Ferghana.Ru, Mobil'ny Reporter, 18.05.2005 00:17

Telephone operators in Uzbekistan, both fixed-line city networks and mobile networks, have introduced special settings. This is reported by residents of Andijan and Ferghana, who have experienced unexpected difficulties during telephone conversations. According to them, as soon as either of the parties to the conversation mentions the words "Andijan," "victim," "killed," "SNB," or others, the line goes dead.

Editorial employees of Ferghana.Ru have also encountered such "censorship" while trying to place a call to Namangan. After a ten-minute conversation, a phrase was said which included the word "Andijanis." The conversation immediately broke off, and it was subsequently impossible to reach the other party to the conversation again.

We present these facts for the consideration of professional specialists in the area of telecommunications. We are accepting comments on this subject.

Source:
"Mobil'ny reporter" [interesting mobile phone news site with news on Andijan, in Russian - trans.]. Read more about the Mobil'ny Reporter project on News.ferghana.ru [also in Russian - trans.].
It doesn't take a "professional specialist" to conclude that maybe the people in Uzbekistan who Ferghana.Ru editor Daniil Kislov (the link is to some excellent comments of his in an interview with Gazeta.ru, which are translated into English on the Ferghana.Ru site) talks to from Moscow - presumably his correspondents and sources who might be under official surveillance - all have their phones tapped. Or, possibly, he has his phone tapped. Maybe he was trying to get that point across without expressing the idea directly.

Uzbek human rights activist placed under house arrest - Ferghana.Ru

Human Rights: Elena Urlaeva, who was planning to ask the USA to deploy peacekeepers in Uzbekistan, was taken under house arrest from the office of [opposition party] Ozod Dekhkonlar. - Ferghana.Ru, Andrei Kudriashov, 17.05.2005 20.44

A protest rally was held on May 17th at 11am at the US Embassy in Tashkent demanding an end to the [Uzbek] security forces' despotism. However, demands that a peacekeeping contingent be deployed in Uzbekistan in connection with the tragic events in Andijan were not heard. Well-known human rights defender Elena Urlaeva, who had been planning to put forth this demand, was taken under house arest the day before and was not allowed to participate in the protest. This was reported to Ferghana.Ru correspondents by Bakhtier Namazov, an activist for the opposition party Ozod Dekhkonlar.

"On the evening of May 16, when Urlaeva was heading home, she noticed that the security forces were standing watch at the entrance to her apartment building. She then drove to the office of the Ozod Dekhkonlar party, being a member of the party's political council, and decided to spend the night there. At 8:30 in the morning she said on the phone that unknown persons were breaking down the door of the office. A half an hour later, Urlaeva was not found in the office. Law enforcement officials had placed her under house arrest.

Participants in the protest expressed the opinion that the authorities were afraid of Urlaeva's participation in the protest and the possibility of her meeting with American diplomats. The protest condemning the shooting of the peaceful residents of Andijan lasted about an hour.

[Translated by me. The original article (linked above) has photos.]

Uzbek unrest coverage in the blogosphere

Well, "Today's Blogs" at Slate has beat me to the punch on doing a run-down of blog comment/coverage of the events in Uzbekistan.

Tuesday, May 17, 2005

Uzbek prosecutor - 169 killed; political opposition counts over 500 killed

This is from the Scotsman:

Prosecutor: '169 People Killed in Andijan Unrest'
"PA" 3:01pm (UK), 17.05.2005

Uzbekistan’s top prosecutor said today that 169 people had been killed in violence in the eastern town of Andijan, including more than 50 foreign fighters.

Prosecutor-General Rashid Kadyrov’s estimate was far below the more than 500 cited earlier in the day by an opposition political party that has been polling alleged victims’ relatives.

Kadyrov said 32 of those who died last Friday were government troops, and indicated that the others were militants. “Only terrorists were liquidated by government forces,” he told a news conference, with President Islam Karimov at his side – again contradicting witnesses’ accounts of the violence. [...]

Following Karimov’s earlier claim of foreign involvement in the Andijan riots, Kadyrov also said that more than 50 of those killed were foreigners, including two Kyrgyz nationals. Five more Kyrgyz citizens have been detained, he said. [...]
How can they be so sure that 50 of the dead were "foreigners"? I understand that there might be ways to tell, but I nevertheless find this suspicious. I guess the Uzbek authorities figure that dead men tell no tales.

Today Karimov lashed out at foreign journalists, accusing them of slanted coverage of Andijan events. He said official restrictions on journalists’ access to the area were motivated by concerns about their safety.

“I’m personally responsible for your safety,” he said.
I'll turn off my sarcasm filter and observe that coming from a guy who may have (note, I say may have, because we'll probably never know the true death toll) presided over the largest massacre of peaceful protesters since Tiananmen Square, that has got to be really reassuring.

Karimov also shrugged off allegations of troops killing civilians. “Who would kill people who have no weapons?” Karimov said.
Who, indeed?

The
report continues:

Nigara Khidoyatova, the head of the Free Peasants party, said that 542 people had been killed in Andijan on Friday and 203 others Saturday in Pakhtabad, another city in the Fergana Valley. Khidoyatova said her party had arrived at the figure by speaking to relatives of those killed, and the count was continuing.

“Soldiers were roaming the streets and shooting at innocent civilians,” Khidoyatova told The Associated Press. “Many victims were shot in the back of the head.”

Khidoyatova said her party’s representatives had talked to victims’ relatives and attended the victims’ funerals. “The count hasn’t yet finished, and the death toll will rise,” she said. [...]

“Relatives of the victims are in shock, and they can’t understand why their close ones were killed,” Khidoyatova told The AP. “Once the funerals are over, they aren’t going to let it go unpunished and will take revenge. They are boiling with anger.” [...]

Khidoyatova said that explosions of anger following the massacre will soon spread to other cities in the volatile, densely-populated Fergana Valley and eventually topple Karimov’s government.

“It’s the beginning of the end of Karimov’s regime,” she said.
I guess that remains to be seen, but if Andy at SiberianLight is correct, Karimov's news blackout may be geared to prevent the protest from spreading:

One of the few sensible reasons for the news blackout that I can think of is that Karimov hopes that rumours about the crackdown actually will spread unchecked. For, if rumours of the deathtoll continue to increase every time the story is passed on, chances are that other potential protesters throughout Uzbekistan might decide that coming out onto the streets simply isn't worth the risk.
RIA Novosti, unsurprisingly, reports the prosecutor's statement uncritically:

169 PEOPLE KILLED IN ANDIZHAN 20:49

TASHKENT, May 17 (RIA Novosti) - According to Uzbek Prosecutor General Rashid Kadyrov, 169 people were killed in Andizhan including 32 servicemen and policemen, three women and two minors.

81 insurgents, including 50 foreigners and five Kyrgyz citizens were detained, Kadyrov said at a press conference on Tuesday.

Small protest at US Embassy in Tashkent

There are lots of other reports from today on the Andijan aftermath, but this one is short and easy to translate, plus I haven't seen it yet anywhere other than on Echo of Moscow's website:

17.05.2005 The Uzbek opposition has held a demonstration in front of the US Embassy in Tashkent. 15 people participated in the rally. They demanded assistance from Washington in conducting democratic reforms.

Curfew last night in Andijan

I guess it's not surprising. The item about casualties in Pakhtabad was picked up by Nathan at Registan here, although his source says 200 killed. I am not able to translate the article here (my batteries are dead), but the headline gets the main points across pretty well:

Arena: 13 dead in Pakhtabad. Curfew declared in Andijan [at 18.00].
IA Ferghana.Ru, Arena, 16.05.2005 22:00

This could be bad

I've seen this item mentioned in comments over at Registan.net, so I thought I'd translate it in its entirety (not much to it):

Uzbek authorities are preparing a general mobilization
IA Ferghana.Ru, proprietary information, 16.05.2005 17:33
The statistical directorates of Uzbekistan's regions have been tasked this week with starting a headcount of the male population fit for military service. Employees [of these directorates] reported this to Ferghana.Ru correspondents and said that they had never before engaged in such work, and that their superiors did not provide any explanation whatsoever as to the goals of this survey, which they were asked to complete "urgently."
No one seems to know why they are doing this. My opinion: in all likelihood, rather than preparing for a draft or military mobilization, the authorities are trying to figure out the pool of potential rebel recruits.

"Information blockade promotes spread of rumors" - Arena

OK, here's where I saw the item about information restrictions promoting wild rumors, mentioned in my long post earlier (my translation):

Information blockade promotes the spread of rumors 15.05.2005
The end result of the "media liberalization" proposed by the authorities this spring has become absolutely apparent, and its appearance is not pleasing. The silencing by the government of information about the events in Andijan probably killed off the last hopes even among the most incorrigible optimists.

The replacement of news reports on Russian TV channels with "musical breaks" and the blocking of websites did not leave any doubt about the fact that the words "liberalization" and "freedom" are interpreted by official Tashkent in ways directly opposite to their true meanings.

This is incredible, because already on the morning of May 13th, few people under the sunny, cloudless skies in Uzbekistan didn't know about what had happened. Weighing out strawberries, sellers at the bazaars said hurriedly with a concerned expression, "You know there's a war in Andijan!" And in the East, as is well known, if something is being talked about in the bazaars, then everyone knows about it. [...]
The report goes on to talk about the specific section of the Uzbek constitution that's being violated by the media restrictions and makes other interesting points, but I don't have the energy to translate it all and thought this was the best part of the piece.

Karimov blamed US for unrest - Arena

From the Arena news agency ( the site's address is freeuz.org, and the logo is captioned in part with the only English words on the main page - "Committee for freedom of speech and expression" - so they are not neutral; they have an English-language page, but as with so many of these agencies they are not able to translate most of their content):
The President knows which forces have an interest in destabilizing the situation in Uzbekistan 14.05. [I think the headline is intended to be sarcastic]

[...] Karimov thinks that the sources of this operation are outside of the country, and that there are forces which have an interest in destabilizing the situation in Uzbekistan. These are not only Hizb ut Tahrir, but the United States as well. Karimov made it clear that the "leader of a large superpower, who just completed a tour of the CIS nations" is inclined to forcibly implant democracy in the post-Soviet space. [...]
Has anyone seen this sound bite anywhere else? It's hard to believe the Western wires wouldn't have picked it up and run with it if he really said it. If he did, it would reveal extremely poor judgement at best, or paranoia verging on insanity at worst. But don't ask me, I just translate these things, I don't know if they're really true or not.

Has anyone seen a full transcript of Karimov's remarks on Saturday the 14th? Please comment with a link if so. Thanks.

CNN interviews ICRC rep in Tashkent

Live from my TV screen: CNN International interviews Red Cross (ICRC) representative Roland Vavre in Tashkent - he has been in Andijan but did not have anything to say about a body count there. At one point he dodged a question about casualties in Andijan by saying, "[ICRC] is concentrating on its humanitarian mission." They "always refrain from commenting publicly" about such things, apparently.

On the situation in Kara-suu, he mentioned that the rebuilding of the bridge between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek portions of the city was most important to the locals, so that they could resume their traditional cross-border trade - "Their main concern is to do business as usual."

So, nothing new, really, but at least CNN is still treating this like what it is - an important story in which key facts are still not yet known.

UzA news items - comical

Who do they think they are fooling with these reports? (I had to translate them from Russian)

The idea of national independence and education 16.05.2005 18:39
In a report to a joint session of the Legislative chamber and the Olii Majlis Senate [I may have butchered that transliteration, someone please correct me if so] President Islam Karimov noted that the reforms being conducted in the country are directed toward democracy and the renewal of society. The participation of the younger generation in this process has significant meaning. [...]
A statement which is transparently designed allow the US to say that at least he's making the right noises, if that's what the US decides it wants to do.

New jobs are being created 16.05.2005 19:33
In our country, much attention is paid to raising the social activity of women, the defense of their rights, and the strengthening of their health. The problem of ensuring employment for women is especially relevant. In the Ferghana region a plan to increase women's employment during 2005-2007 has also [sic] been developed and is being implemented.
A pointed reminder that the Uzbek government is NOT a fundamentalist government that wants to keep women at home. At least they have that going for them. They just shoot them in the streets.

The Soviet influence

This won't be news to anyone who's followed Central Asia since, say, prior to the Tulip Revolution, and it isn't news to me, but Uzbek President Islam Karimov (several bios - Wikipedia's, an official-seeming one at uzland.freenet.uz which has a big photo of Karimov and Dubya, a fawning one from gov.uz, and a similar but more ridiculously fawning, cult-of-personality-like one on the Umid Presidential Scholarship Program Official Homepage - which, alarmingly, is hosted by an outfit called "Funeral Packages" - see the fine print at lower left here) is a true product of the Soviet system. Most bloggers who are commenting on Karimov are focusing on his relationship in the last 4 years with President Bush, and although I think news reports often mention in a boilerplate way that he's headed Uzbekistan since before the Soviet breakup, I think this basic fact deserves some detail.

Back in 1989, after a rise through the Communist Party ranks, Karimov became First Secretary of the Uzbekistan Communist Party Central Committee (head of the republic, in other words), then he became the first President of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic in 1990. He shepherded the country to independence in August of 1991 and was, uh, "elected" President of newly independent Uzbekistan in December of that year. Time was, lots of heads of post-Soviet states were former republic first party secretaries, but those times have passed in much of the post-Soviet space. Not in Uzbekistan, though.

This article goes in-depth about the ways in which Karimov "simply took all the trappings of Soviet Communism-one-party rule, state control of the press, secret surveillance of the populace, five-year plans, government monopolization of the means of production-and converted them, lock, stock and political prison, into a well-oiled banana republic."

Working Definition (a Peace Corps volunteer in Uzbekistan) also talks about the Soviet legacy, but with an interesting twist - he describes how much BETTER it was for the average Uzbek to live under Soviet power than under Karimov's impoverished simulation of Soviet rule.

But the point of this post (yes, now I get to it) is really quite a basic one, and this whole mini-research project was inspired by
just one brief comment from Veronica at Neeka's Backlog:

People outside the country know more than those who are stuck inside. Fucking incredible. And so similar to 19 years ago - the Chernobyl situation.
Veronica grew up in what was still the Soviet Union (I am pretty sure of that, and I hope she'll correct me if I'm wrong). I spent three years of my childhood in the USSR (my father was on a diplomatic assignment) and was with my family in Leningrad when Chernobyl happened, so the information-deprived environment is familiar to me as well.

How is this all relevant to what's happening in Uzbekistan today? Let me explain. I have been in touch with a blogger in Tashkent who tells me (this is not going to be news to
Nathan and the frequent commenters at Registan, and I know it's been publicized in lots of media outlets, but it makes it more real for me to hear it from someone who's actually there) that certain news resources have been blocked or censored selectively for years. And in recent days, the censorship of outside media has extended beyond just Western outlets - even Russian news broadcasts and websites have been censored. He estimates only 15-20% of internet users interested in foreign news reports are able to use proxy servers and other tricks to get around the filters the government has set up, and he notes that of course internet access is not that widespread - and television is "not unlockable."

So, the authorities in Uzbekistan have been doing their best these past few days to prevent news from the outside world from reaching citizens - their goal is something similar to the media environment in the Soviet Union. As I've seen noted somewhere on the internet (I can't for the life of me find it now, though - too many browser windows open and too much navigating around combined with too little sleep), and really it's common sense, it's socially destabilizing to and in the long term bad for any government to prevent people from getting news from trusted and credible public sources (I'm thinking that many if not most Uzbeks realize that
UzA does not fall into that category, though given the level of gullibility I've observed among Russians with respect to news reports here, maybe I shouldn't be so sure). This is because they will still get their news from trusted and credible sources, but they'll be private ones with no public feedback mechanism - their neighbors, their relatives, etc. This (1) eradicates people's trust in the government, (2) provides the potential for damaging/destabilizing rumors to spread, and (3) means there is no public forum for people to express views about news they've heard, since all "trusted" news was heard in private.

The excellent
AP report about the protesters in Andijan standing up and speaking out - some of them for the first time in years or ever - about the poverty and unemployment which they face daily is a perfect example of pent-up despair boiling over - and the Uzbek authorities spoke volumes with their response about their concern for the well-being of their citizens. The Soviet experience may seem less relevant here - after all, the USSR was pulled apart and its totalitarian government brought down from within by internal elites (that's a gross oversimplification, of course) who eventually recognized it was not a sustainable model.

But in fact it is relevant, if you consider that it was likely elites who sparked the clash in Andijan with their jailbreak (
this comment and others at Registan talk about how financial interests are involved here). Remember, where there's political repression and non-democratic rule, there is often corruption and people jockeying non-transparently for the opportunity to stick their mouth in one government trough or another (be it a position with the Customs service somewhere in the Ferghana Valley or a license to drill for oil in, say, Russia). And rival elites can and will use social discontent (just as those elites who have the government on their side will use law enforcement, as apparently happened with the arrests of the now-infamous 23 businessmen) as their instrument in economic disputes. OK, perhaps the comparison to the Soviet Union unravels at this point. I'm a bit tired, I must confess, and complex logical thinking is becoming a challenge. Does anyone want to pick up this train of thought? Or is it hopelessly derailed? Time for one more brief roundup of the Russian-language wires, and then I'm off for the night (don't be alarmed by the time-stamp, I'm actually in London for a few days but still posting on Moscow time).

[Update: on the Soviet thread in all of this, see also the first comment (it has no link of its own) on this Guardian blog roundup]

Comment - response


I got a brief comment on this post today:
rosignol said...

The Hizb ut-Tahrir website is at
http://www.hizb-ut-tahrir.org/

They're of the 'trying to establish an islamic/sharia state' ilk.
Maybe I should hide my uninformed and/or unoriginal response in the comments section, but I think it's worth airing. I should preface my comments by saying that I really am no expert on the situation in Central Asia (those of you who are can probably already tell), so I'm happy to be set straight by people who are objective and know better.

Anyway, thanks for posting the link, but I must say, the comments from a witness to fighting apparently involving Hizb ut Tahrir in Dee's post (which she has since deleted from her site) and Karimov's statement blaming them notwithstanding, that I am not 100% convinced of the Hizb ut Tahrir's involvement in this. Consider that Dee's source likely heard Karimov's remarks and/or earlier government statements that all violent opposition to the government is conducted by Hizb ut Tahrir, and that this might have just been the first (or only) organization he thought of when he saw or heard about armed resistance to the government. Also - and much, much more importantly - I am not convinced that this organization's goals, or their involvement or non-involvement in organizing the uprising, is relevant to a discussion of why so many thousands of protesters turned out (surely they were not all fundamentalists with dreams of restoring the caliphate, starting with Andijan) and why the Uzbek authorities ultimately chose to deal with the situation as they apparently did, by firing without warning on those protesters.

The problem with the "Islamic fundamentalists caused this" idea that the Uzbek authorities and some others are trying to put out there is that it's just too easy for Karimov to chalk up this uprising to Islamic radicals rather than acknowledging the real causes - lawlessness on the part of law enforcement, desperate poverty, and economic/social repression. These seem to be acknowledged as the causes of the Andijan protest (if not the jailbreak that set the situation off) by a consensus of objective observers. It will be easier for Karimov to get away with this if the US and Russian governments don't call him out on it, and they have shown reluctance (in Russia's case, unwillingness would probably be more like it) to do so.

To explain why I think that the Uzbek authorities were firmly in the wrong in their actions, I would separate this into two issues:

1) Who organized the jailbreak and initial hostage-taking (by the "rebels" or "militants") in Andijan, and what might have been a reasonable government response; and

2) The peaceful (by all accounts I've seen they were peaceful except for some stone-throwing) protesters, who (by all credible accounts) were fired on without warning by Uzbek troops, and why the government felt that was a reasonable response to the situation.

Even if - and it's a big if, it seems to me - "Islamic fundamentalist terrorists" (as distinguished from Muslims who may have been opposed to the government for legitimate reasons, and may have felt that violence was justified because their chances of getting a fair shake through the legal system were nil) were behind (1), how does that justify (2)?

Karimov can fire the local police officials, but at the end of the day a general (speaking metaphorically) has to be held responsibile for the actions of his troops, especially since he was present and (we should therefore assume) directly involved in devising the government's response on Friday the 13th. And that response looks to have been excessive, whether or not Hizb ut Tahrir was involved.

Monday, May 16, 2005

NYT interviews Ferghana.Ru editor

Excerpt from today's story on Andijan in the New York Times (registration required):

Daniil Kislov, the editor in Moscow of a Web site, Ferghana.ru, said the site's correspondent in Andijon saw 50 bodies in the city's morgue on Saturday, as well as 15 bodies in the city's central square on Saturday evening. On Sunday, the correspondent, Aleksei Volosevich, saw three more bodies, Mr. Kislov said.

Mr. Volosevich was not able to visit School No. 15, where The Associated Press had reported that 500 bodies awaited identification, citing an unidentified doctor. Mr. Kislov said the number of dead was less important than how they died.

"I do not think there is any difference between 50 and 500," Mr. Kislov said. "It is equally too many. The government's response was disproportionately tough." The resistance to the government has been variously described as peaceful demonstrators seeking reform, desperate criminals and Islamic militants, and could contain elements of all three.
The NYT is wisely being conservative with the death toll reports (from the same story linked to above), and explains why:

Reports of the number of deaths since the violence began varied widely, from dozens to hundreds of civilians. The Associated Press reported that residents of the village of Tefektosh had said the latest clashes left several soldiers dead. Uzbekistan's president, Islam A. Karimov, said Saturday that 10 government soldiers and "many more rebels" had been killed.

None of the reports could be verified, and it was difficult to determine who was fighting, and with what ambitions, although in addition to elements of a general uprising against a repressive government, armed and newly freed inmates were in the area of strife. Telephone service has been intermittent, and the Uzbek government has forced many journalists to leave.

Reports on the number of dead, arrested, back in jail in Andijan, Uzbekistan


I just translated several items (interspersed with my comments):

From Echo of Moscow radio:


13:33 16.05.2005 There are 75 bodies in the Andijan morgue

Interfax, citing its sources, reports that these are the bodies of people who died with weapons in their hands. Earlier the Uzbek Ministry of Internal Affairs officially announced that 70 people perished during the unrest in Andijan. Meanwhile, information agencies have cited very different figures. According to them, during the unrest at least 500 people died. Many of them were buried on the streets of the city without being identified.
The "buried on the streets without being identified" claim sounds like something that could be used later by people who want to inflate the death toll.

From Interfax:

In the Andijan morgue there are bodies of 75 people who put up armed resistance during the unrest in the city, according to a telephone report to Interfax by a medical worker in the city.

"All of these people were putting up armed resistance to law enforcement officers and were killed in shoot-outs," said the agency's source.

"Currently they are being identified. Among them may be criminals who escaped from the prison," said the source. [the rest of the article is accessible to paid Interfax subscribers only, but I am sure Western wires will pick this up.]
Claiming that "all of these people" were putting up a fight is ridiculous because it is impossible to verify, and this constitutes a claim that will surely be used by people who want to deflate the death toll or demonstrate that the authorities shot only those people who were putting up resistance. So expect continued distortion on both sides of this discussion, which will be played out in further contradictory reports of the number of casualties.


70 organizers of the unrest in Andijan have been arrested - MVD head

Tashkent. 16 May. Interfax - Uzbek authorities have arrested no fewer than 70 organizers of the unrest in Andijan, reported the country's Minister of Internal Affairs, Zakir Almatov, at a meeting with representatives of the city's community last Sunday.

He also announced that some of the inmates of the pre-trial detention facility had voluntarily returned to jail.

Z. Almatov called on Andijanians to unify their efforts at bringing order to the city. He noted with satisfaction that city residents are assisting the authorities. "People are turning in weapons abandoned by the criminals and providing essential information to law enforcement agencies," he said.
The comment about local residents cooperating is probably geared to make other local residents who are as yet undecided on how they feel about what's happened decide they should also be on the side of the authorities.

RIA Novosti is more exact about the number of people back in jail:


Tashkent, 16 May - RIA Novosti. 266 of the inmates who had been liberated by rebels on the evening of Friday, May 13, have returned voluntarily to the Andijan pretrial detention facility, the Uzbek Ministry of Internal Affairs told RIA Novosti.

As a result of the unrest, extremists freed roughly 500 out of 600 inmates from the jail. Roughly 100 inmates did not leave the jail. [...]
All I can say about this is, consider the source. Over half of the escapees returned "voluntarily"? I don't think that would happen in any jailbreak, anywhere in the world.