I decided to translate the answers (adding some comments of my own in square brackets) and add links to bios of the individuals questioned and their organizations, where available - quite an assortment of luminaries.
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Is he forever now?
Kommersant Vlast', October 8, 2007
At the United Russia congress Vladimir Putin agreed to head up the party's candidates list in the [Duma] elections. This so delighted the United Russia members that they decided not to put anyone else on the list.
Oleg Morozov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma (United Russia): "Why must you immediately ask about 'forever'? It's just that the idea about Putin becoming Prime Minister looks like the most logical one. The President acted very courageously, endangering his own authority, but this is also a very patriotic act, since Russia needs him."
Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the CPRF [Communist Party of the Russian Federation]: "I wouldn't jump to such a conclusion. Although Putin has indeed decided to head up the 'new CPSU' [Communist Party of the Soviet Union - Zyuganov is referring to United Russia, the phrase he used was "нью-КПСС"], he has probably come up with some multi-step combination move. Zubkov will most likely be his successor. And Putin will become sort of a General Secretary, who will fire and appoint people, playing the role of Khrushchev. But whether that will be for long, I can't say."
Aleksandr Zhukov, deputy prime minister (United Russia): "I wouldn't pose the question that way. The President said that if the party has a solid victory, he might head up the government [as PM]. At the same time, he didn't become a member of the party. This is a normal practice in developed countries, where the parliamentary majority chooses the government and the leader of the party becomes PM." [it may be normal in some countries, but that's not the way it has worked in Russia, and it's possible that the Constitution would have to be amended to make it work this way - see Putinwatcher's related post.]
Garry Kasparov, leader of the United Civil Front. "'Forever' in Russia can turn out to be a very short period of time. Especially since Putin's most recent decisions, driven by nervousness and growing fear, have cut the majority of the ruling elite off from the feeding-trough. This has created colossal instability. And the prime minister's position is one of the false signals in his special operation. How he will return to power afterwards, Putin himself doesn't know yet, and he would pay dearly for advice on how to do this.
Leonid Gozman, deputy chairman of SPS [Union of Right Forces]: "Yes, and it seems that Putin has decided not just to influence things but to be the number-one person de facto. Apparently he understands that his terrarium of like-minded people will be at his throat the instant his power weakens. He realizes that he has created a form of stability that depends on a specific person.Aleksandr Korzhakov, Duma Deputy (United Russia): "I'm no oracle, but I think that would be a very good alternative." [I have to say that I was shocked to see that Korzhakov is still politically active - Yeltsin's somewhat buffoonish former bodyguard (at right) is on the one hand exactly the kind of person I'd expect Putin's people to want out of the picture, but on the other hand he may be the perfect deputy for a substance-free Duma.]
Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy chairman of Yabloko: "Putin probably wants to stay in power forever. The [United Russia] congress, the speech by the weaver, and the universal love for the leader - all of this looks a bit frightening, as though we're back in Soviet times. But there is one positive point: United Russia will soon slay Putin's approval rating and will drag him down with its deeds."
Viktor Gerashchenko, chairman of the YUKOS board of directors, former head of the Central Bank of Russia: "Putin's entourage is so large and dependent on him that they simply won't allow him to escape. His showy self-nomination to the thunderous applause of the ruling elite is egotistical and unethical. To be frank, it's a word that starts with the letter 'б'." [Not 100% sure what he means, although I have a guess, and it's not flattering.]
Mikhail Kasyanov, leader of the People's Democratic Union: "Nothing is forever. I am not surprised by Putin's decision. Back in May, after his speech [presumably Kasyanov means the state of the nation speech Putin delivered in late April], it was clear that he would stay [in power]. It is obvious that the current political crisis will continue, with the one difference that the prime minister will move to the Kremlin. On TV they will show what the leader of the country is doing, regardless of what his position is."
Aleksei Gordeev, minister of agriculture (United Russia): "It's not that it's forever, it's just that right now the continuity of power is important in Russia. By heading up the party list, Putin has guaranteed continuity, and that is wonderful."
Mikhail Barshchevsky, chairman of the governing council of Citizens' Force: "Not necessarily [forever], but almost certainly until 2011. After the results of the Duma elections are announced, Putin can resign from the Presidency before the end of his term, and once he is a deputy he can head up the Duma. Then he will be elected Prime Minister [by the Duma]. And in the spring the question of amending the Constitution will arise. Any amendments will deal not with a third presidential term, but with a presidential-parliamentary republic. But all of that will be until 2011."
Sergei Baburin, deputy Duma chairman, leader of People's Union: "Most likely, Putin will enter the Duma and there will be early presidential elections. Then Putin will decide to run again [for President], and this won't count as a third term. But the most important thing at the moment is that Putin, in heading United Russia's party list, has buried Fair Russia."
Sergei Mironov, chairman of the Federation Council, leader of Fair Russia: "Our president is unpredictable, he has a specific plan, and only he knows what it is. In spite of what some people write about how "Putin's Plan belongs to United Russia," in fact Putin's plan belongs only to Putin."
Konstantin Romodanovsky, director of the Federal Migration Service: "For as long as is necessary for Russia."
Vitaly Korotich, writer: "In a democratic government, there is no such thing as 'forever.' So perhaps I shouldn't say anything at all. But if we recall what was being said about sovereign democracy just a short while ago, then under such a system it is possible not only to appoint successors but also for the country's top leader to head the party list of a 'non-existent' party without worrying about his reputation."
Roy Medvedev, historian: "For a long time. Things are calmer and more certain with him [in power]. And actually, Putin's decision to head up United Russia's party list was unexpected to me. Now Putin can resign the presidency before the end of his term and then become the Prime Minister. And it won't be possible to dismiss a PM like him in 15 minutes, like it was with Kasyanov and Fradkov. Putin is for all intents and purposes changing the system of power."
Andrei Bogdanov, leader of the Democratic Party of Russia: "You know, in Russia [У нас] even Stalin and Lenin were not forever. I lived half my life on the top floor [of an apartment building], above me letters three times as tall as a person burned brightly: 'Glory to the CPSU.' I won't be surprised if they start to glorify the new party [United Russia] soon in the same way."
Aleksei Mitrofanov, Duma deputy, member of Fair Russia: "If he can remain the only tsar in Russia, then for a very long time. But he said that he wouldn't amend the constitution, and the option with the two Roman consuls won't work in Russia. He's not ready to leave like Yeltsin, and it's dangerous [for Putin] to be the PM, because the Russian people will accept only one tsar. But I'm sure that Putin has a couple more trump cards up his sleeve."
Dmitry Orlov, political scientist: "No, Putin is a manager-type leader, and he's not there forever. Putin has already outlined a very plausible course of events, under which he could become Prime Minister after the presidential elections and work in tandem with the new President. Moreover, he has not said that the powers of the president will be limited, although Putin will nevertheless remain the country's leader in the people's minds."
Mintimer Shaimiev, President of the Tatarstan Republic (United Russia): "I don't see any cause for concern in this. Putin is a strong personality, and the people trust him. The country needs such a leader. It would be logical for Putin to head up the government. And the relationship between the future president and Putin will, I am sure, be a good one, after all it could hardly be otherwise."
Dmitry Zimin, president emeritus of Vympelcom: "It's not out of the question, but in that event Vladimir Vladimirovich will lose the chance to depart with honor and dignity, to step down as the beloved president. I know from my own experience - I was able to step down in time, and now I enjoy the fact that people are fond of me. If I had tarried back then, I might not be so respected now."
Svetlana Zhurova, Olympic speed-skating champion (United Russia): "Putin always does extraordinary things, therefore it's very difficult to predict anything about him. Although he has already said that he wouldn't turn down the position of PM. But at the same time I recall certain experts saying that if the President mentions a certain potential turn of events, then it definitely will not happen."
Eduard Limonov, leader of the National-Bolshevik Party: "I will at least do everything I can to prevent that. He's been in charge for eight years - that's enough."
Aleksandr Tkachov, governor of Krasnodar Krai (United Russia): "Forever, not forever...that's not the point. What's more important is that Russia needs Putin. Under his rule the country has once again attained strength and dignity and is assuredly experiencing rising fortunes. But there are plenty of problems, and it's hard to overestimate the value of Putin's experience as the one who reassembled Russia ["собиратель земли русской"].
Mikhail Bershadsky, president of the Al'faStrakhovanie group: "Nothing in this world is forever, especially in our country."
Sergei Dorenko, journalist: "Putin's problem lies in the fact that he wants to leave power but cannot. His feet are tied to the bicycle pedals. Everyone is crediting Putin with some clever plan, but I think he wakes up every day with a new plan. No one needs him once he's out of power. Though it is true that outside of Russia many are waiting for him with open arms: Chechen families, Nevzlin, Berezovsky, and about thirty other people."
2 comments:
Bershadsky's answer is the best...very Russian
Such an interesting resource!
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