Say it ain't so

I woke up this morning to hear Echo of Moscow wags discussing with great consternation the initiative of a regional parliament deputy in the Russian Far East to remove the constitutional restriction limiting Russian Presidents to two consecutive terms of service. Echo then gave listeners the opportunity to call in, and responses were predictably negative, given the tendency of Echo's audience to skew anti-Putin. Here's the story on the deputy's initiative from Lenta.ru (in Russian).

Echo had an interview (in Russian, the link has part of the interview along with other comments on this story) with the man who appears to be behind this initiative, Adam Imadaev, a deputy of the Primorsky Krai legislative assembly, and he didn't sound very impressive. He kept repeating his position that the current term limit deprives Russian citizens of the opportunity to elect the person of their choice as president. This is a fairly common argument against term limits, the pros and cons of which are intimately familiar to me, since I was a political science major in the US in the mid-1990's, when term limits became a very fashionable policy for legislators and a common subject of student debates. In detail, the argument goes like this: the Russian Constitution permits any mentally competent citizen (with, I'm sure, some age restrictions, the details of which I don't know) who is not in prison to be elected president, therefore placing any other restriction - such as a term limit - on who can be elected president is unconstitutional.

Apparently (according to the pundits on Echo), Putin mentioned something last week or two weeks ago while in Finland about wanting to remain President, but not being able to because of the Constitution. For now, it remains to be seen whether this is the independent initiative of a publicity- and favor-seeking local legislator, or whether Imadaev is just carrying the water for someone in the Kremlin. Fortunately for Putin, he's able to send up numerous trial balloons, and there have already been a couple of proposals floated this year to change the structure of the Russian government or the election laws in order to create the potential for Putin to remain in power.

Perhaps this initiative, like the ones which came before, will go nowhere. But it seems that someone can't stop thinking about how to keep VVP in power beyond 2008. I guess it's easier than coming up with a new leader, now that they've spent so much time and resources making Putin popular. Wouldn't it be nice, though, if Putin's team could just be transparent about it, mount a constitutional amendment initiative, and get the necessary regional legislature approvals? Perhaps they're waiting for enough buzz to be generated around the idea so that it doesn't appear to be a top-down initiative; it's also possible that Putin's inner circle is divided on this question, as there may be individuals who see themselves or individuals close to them as possible successors.

I am sure we can expect an avalanche of commentary and speculation (most of it more educated than my vague guesses) about this story in tomorrow's Russian press, and maybe even some thoughts from Russia observers in the West. For now, the English-language press appears to be silent on the story (couldn't find anything on Google News). You heard it here first.