Cause and effect, a.k.a. "диктатура закона"

Cause:

"Mechel was selling steel in Russia at twice the price it put on exports," Putin said in televised comments. "And where has the margin for the state taxes gone?"

Mechel's owner, billionaire Igor Zyuzin, was reportedly ill and not present at the meeting to hear Putin's threat.

"The director has been invited, and he suddenly became ill,'' Putin said. "Of course, illness is illness, but I think he should get well as soon as possible. Otherwise, we will have to send him a doctor and clean up all the problems." [...]

"I'm asking the Federal Anti-Monopoly Service to pay special attention to the problem -- and maybe even the Investigative Committee of the Prosecutor General's Office."

Watch the video. As one of the commenters at drugoi's post on this topic noted, it's not just the words, it's the intonation - and, I would add, the gestures. And the swift official follow-up. No doubt "А маржа где?" will soon become a catchphrase in Moscow OCG and high finance circles alike.


Effect:

[source]

More narrative on the fallout here, here and here. No doubt someone made a bundle. Talk about bread and circuses.

More maps of the Caucasus

A friend of mine who's based in Tbilisi has emailed me these four maps: three interesting German maps of the changing political geography of the Caucasus (sorry, I don't know the source or copyright holder), and a fourth one (also quite interesting in its own way) which goes more toward the present-day situation in a small part of the region.

Histrorical Georgia 1774-1878, full-size version available here.

Histrorical Georgia 1917-1936, full-size version available here.

Histrorical Georgia 1936 - 1959, full-size version available here.

South Ossetia Areas of Control (geor-SO), full-size version available here.
Areas controlled by South Ossetian de facto authorities in red, areas controlled by Georgia in blue.
Here's one good backgrounder on the conflict, and here's another fairly interesting brief.

More maps of the Caucasus, as well as my general disclaimer about how, while I think the old maps are fascinating, I'm also convinced they are a fairly unhelpful lens through which to view the resolution of current territorial conflicts, can be seen here.

Home

[image source]

Now that everyone seems to be talking about an impending war over Abkhazia, in spite of Germany's best efforts (see the latest news here), I've decided to finally translate this post from a few months ago by LiveJournal blogger Cyxymu (perhaps my favorite blogger from the Caucasus), a Georgian who spent his childhood in Abkhazia but now lives in Tbilisi, having become an "internally displaced person" (IDP) during the hostilities in the early 1990s.

Why am I translating this now? For one thing, it's good to remember the human side of the conflict at times like this, but I had a more selfish reason for translating this post - the parts which describe pre-war bliss sort of called to my mind my childhood comfort level visiting my grandparents in Peoria and Madison combined with my in-laws' house in Floresti, Moldova (same corrugated roof, same clattering downspouts, same type of cellar...), where I hope to be spending some time next month.

And perhaps the most selfish reason for undertaking the task of translating this lyrical post rather than rooting around the internet for the most up-to-the minute speculations and accusations is that I just don't have time to do a proper roundup of all the analysis and pseudo-analysis that's circulating at the moment about what might actually happen in the region. Hopefully it will stay at the usual level of saber-rattling.

Anyway, here is cyxymu's post, titled "home":

Last night I dreamed about my grandfather's house. I hadn't dreamed about it in a long time, and it was amazing to find myself back in my childhood.

Most of the time I spent in Sukhumi I lived in that house, I knew all of its nooks and crannies, had secret hiding places and places to be alone and dream...

I dreamed that I was climbing the stairs to the attic, and it was so nice to listen to the rain fall up there. My brother and I went up there a lot and listened to thunderstorms, you could hear the branches banging against the corrugated roof, the rain pounding the tile and flowing down the gutter.

I also liked to hide in the garage, my brother and I had our headquarters there, the garage had a metal roof and the rain would pound on it really hard...

Sometimes when the Besletka [river] would rise during a rainstorm, it would start to flood. The water would pour into the cellar, and then we had to save our supplies) heroism was rewarded with the jam that grandmother made.

In the cellar we had hiding places where we hid all sorts of things, even just before we left, we hid an optical sight that I had found that very day. In back of the house was a chicken coop, and a rooster woke us up every morning as he summoned the sun to rise. Sometimes rats would get into the chicken coop, and I would hunt them with a small-caliber Geco. That's what I wanted the sight for.

In the garden grew everything necessary for human life: two types of pears, apples (champagne and winter), persimmons, green springtime plums [ткемали], plums, feijoa, medlar, figs and two kinds of cherries. I planted the peaches with my own hands. And tomatoes, cucumbers, raspberries, strawberries (though the strawberries often went bad, since we had very damp earth). The cucumbers liked to climb up on the raspberries, and we sometimes missed a cucumber, since we couldn't always see them in the greenery, and it would grow into a big, yellow cucumber. Then grandpa would say, "Well, it's OK, we'll use it for seeds next year."

Every spring he would start the seeds first in cans, then he would replant them into wooden crates, and only then into glass hot-houses. And when the tomatoes grew tall, grandpa and I strung nets over them, so that the pears wouldn't fall on the tomatoes when they ripened.

During [the war], when an Abkhazian shell hit next door, a bit of shrapnel took down a branch of the champagne apple tree as wide as your arm, some of the other trees lost limbs also, and I kept saying that it was the trees that protected us...

Shrapnel chopped up the whole house then, pieces flew in the window of the room where grandpa and grandma slept, miraculously not touching them, lots of bits penetrated the walls, tore the roof apart, knocked out all the windows in the house... But we didn't go move into an Abkhazian's house, instead we put in new glass and fixed the roof (patched the holes). Thinking ahead, we stuck crosses of white paper tape on the windows...

My heart aches for that house more than any other, in spite of the fact that we had nicer houses and apartments in Sukhumi. My heart stayed behind in that house.

And more than anything I can't forgive myself for leaving behind my grandpa and grandma - when I took my parents out of Sukhumi, I was hoping to return in a couple of days.

And no one from my family was able to make it to Sukhumi for my grandpa and grandma's funerals. We simply weren't allowed to return.

Obligation runs into devotion

As some of my readers may be aware, I've been spending the summer preparing to take the New York Bar Exam. The stress and difficulty of this process is not a proper subject for a post on this blog, however I would like to share one sample multiple choice question which I encountered today in the course of my practice test-taking. This is a question that is supposed to prepare test-takers for the Multistate Bar Examination, or MBE, which is the second day of the bar exam in many states:

Gorby wanted to kill Yeltsin in the most horrible manner possible. He knew that Yeltsin had difficulty sleeping and took medication which nearly rendered him (Yeltsin) unconscious during the night. Gorby decided to burn down Yeltsin's house as Yeltsin slept, and seized his opportunity one night after they had finished playing chess. Yeltsin had taken his medication and was sleeping deeply.

Gorby got a coffee cup, filled it with lighter fluid, lit a cigarette, and put the cup underneath Yeltsin's bed with the burning cigarette balanced on the cup's edge. Gorby knew that as the cigarette burned, it would tip and fall into the cup of lighter fluid, setting the bed on fire. Gorby then left the house. The igniter worked just as Gorby had planned, except that Yeltsin's housekeeper smelled the smoke and called for help before the bed could ignite.

Yeltsin was killed by the toxic fumes emitted by the burning lighter fluid, but there was no other damage to Yeltsin's home except the blackening of the ceiling of the bedroom from the dense smoke.

If Gorby is prosecuted for arson of Yeltsin's house, he should be found... [multiple choice options omitted]

(c) Kaplan / PMBR

Disrespecting "Real Sovereignty"

[image source]

Below are some excerpts from a review of Andrei Kokoshin's book Real Sovereignty in the Modern World System, revised edition published in 2006 (you can buy it here). I'm posting them because they are the sort of trenchant yet erudite takedown that one doesn't often see on the pages of a thick journal, especially when directed at someone on the masthead of the journal; and also because Kokoshin was - and probably still is - the kind of person who Western foreign policy elites meet with when they visit Moscow (an academic who has published extensively in English and held a high-ranking position in the Yeltsin Administration, and someone with extensive contacts in the West) and it's interesting to see this of assessment of his more recent work.

Finally, I want to recommend that anyone with time on their hands and a good reading knowledge of Russian navigate here and read some of the back-issues of Svobodnaya Mysl'. I'm a little concerned that by expressing my delight at finding full-text back-issues online I will reveal my ignorance of what would seem to be an essential publication, but I guess it's a risk I'm willing to take. Incidentally, I think an English-language summary of Kokoshin's thesis about sovereignty may be provided by this article of his in Russia in Global Affairs.

What We Have Come To
The Transformation of a Soviet Scholar into a Russian Propaganda Specialist
By Vladislav Inozemtsev
Svobodnaia Mysl', No. 4, 2006, p. 209
Translated in Russian Politics and Thought, March/April 2007

[...]

It is strange and puzzling to find the style of argumentation used here from a scholar of such stature. Kokoshin constantly invokes the opinion of “Western scholars,” but the reader will search in vain for any mention of the works produced by Western theorists of sovereignty over the last fifteen years. The urgent judgments of Jean-Jacques Rousseau are a different matter (pp. 49–50). That is, Academician Kokoshin clearly has no interest in attempts to comprehend the reality of the post–cold war world. Moreover, the positions of Western sociologists and legal scholars are cited, as a rule, not from the original sources but from materials published in Russian journals: Expert, Kosmopolis, and Mezhdunarodnye protsessy.

Finally, Kokoshkin uses public opinion surveys to support this or that argument. For example, he cites survey findings from the Russian Center for Public Opinion Research (VTsIOM) to support his statement that “a significant portion of the U.S. political elite has demonstrated its intent to weaken Russia’s position in global politics on a range of parameters ever since the end of the cold war, the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, and the collapse of the Soviet Union” (p. 29). His proof is that 30 percent of VTsIOM’s Russian respondents are convinced that the Americans intend to weaken Russia, and 51 percent think that U.S. “aid” to develop democracy in Russia has damaged our state (p. 118 n. 33). (By the way, of the book’s 173 pages, 78 are taken up with verbose notes—probably an odd sort of record for the genre.) No more proof is needed: no statements by U.S. officials, no materials from congressional hearings or reports by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), not even specific examples of actions against Russia funded by the United States! If this approach gains acceptance, the Academy of Sciences will soon be proving mathematical theorems with help from VTsIOM.

[...]

Anyone who finds the time to read Kokoshin’s new book will agree that its topic is not sovereignty. Rather, it offers a defense of the current Russian government. This defense includes the concept of “sovereign democracy,” which differs from “mere democracy” in being enriched by certain features that are “inherently characteristic” of the Russian state and, according to Kokoshin, “deeply rooted” in the Russian value system (for more detail, see pp. 74–77). It remains unclear whether these features include, for example, corruption and thievery, which are inherently typical of Russian officials, nor is it clear in general what exactly Kokoshin means by “features.” The book does, however, communicate unambiguously that it reflects ideally the
logic of the current ruling elite.

Kokoshin writes that the need to develop a theory of “sovereign democracy” has arisen because “in the current decade . . . a considerable segment of society began to view ‘democratic ideology’ as a negative phenomenon. Moreover, the public assesses the ‘democracy—nondemocracy’ juxtaposition not so much by the criterion of efficiency as by the dominance of emotion” (p. 75). But this raises the question: if Kokoshin is right, then is it not Russian professors’ job to teach their compatriots to avoid yielding to emotion and understand reality?! If an academician, professor, and teacher openly acknowledges that he has to adapt his teaching to the level of his failing students and stop teaching them basic knowledge (just to avoid having them kick him out of the classroom), then surely we must give up on the Russian scholarship that our deputy argues vehemently must be restored (see pp. 76–78, 86–88, 90–91).

[...]

Regrettably, the book by Kokoshin, an academician and State Duma deputy, has no scholarly value. But it is a peculiar literary record of a capable scholar’s transformation into a propaganda specialist for United Russia. It is a manual on how to search for and “elegantly” apply dubious sources of scholarly information. An amazed reader will find in it the names of the “well-known Russian political scientists” A. Kustarev, S. Zhiznin, N. Dolgopolova, and M. Khrustalev (the last of whom, let us note, has discovered that “the state has traditional ownership rights over certain territories and their resident population (citizens)” (quoted from p. 58; italics added—V.I.), as well as such giants of Russian scholarly thought as Valerii Fadeev, editor in chief of Expert, or Vladislav Surkov, deputy head of the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation. Kokoshin offers abundant quotations from the latest speeches of such people, made during various meetings of the party’s economic leaders (in fact, these speeches, which timewise largely coincide with the date of Kokoshin’s publishing contract, constitute the “updates and additions” justifying a third edition).

This review has probably turned out to be excessively harsh. Today the shelves of Russian bookstores are breaking under the weight of printed materials next to which even Kokoshin’s deserves praise. But until the very last moment, this reviewer did not want to believe that the wave of obsequiousness could sweep up not only professional political technicians but also prominent members of the Soviet academic establishment. The realities of the struggle for real sovereignty, however, require even these sacrifices. Too bad.

Friendship of Peoples

RIA Novosti caption: The USA and the USSR youth
XIII meeting in Kishinev participants. Sept. 1, 1984.
[image source]

I found this picture in RIA Novosti's online archive. It reminded me that nine years ago this year I went to Chisinau for a summer that changed my life. When I went there in 1999, of course I knew I wasn't the first American student to spend time there (though it sometimes felt that way), but I didn't realize I'd had predecessors in the 1980s.

Interestingly, on the date this picture was taken, I was taking part in my own US-USSR "youth meeting" in Leningrad - it was the first day of what would be three years of school for me at School No. 232.

Voice of Tiraspol

CIMG6523, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.

As has happened more times in the past than I'd care to admit, a few weeks ago a discussion in the comments section of Sean's Russia Blog sent me searching for info on a fairly obscure topic. One result was that I revisited ocity, the LiveJournal community set up by residents of Tiraspol - for those of you who understandably might not follow these things, that's the capital of the unrecognized Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (a.k.a. PMR, Transnistria, Transdniester, Pridnestrovie, etc.), a little strip of land that's been trying to secede from Moldova since the breakup of the USSR.

It seems that some of Tiraspol's netizens are unhappy with some of the initiatives of the territory's de facto government. Here are my translations of a couple of recent posts to the ocity community (which also exists outside of LJ):

Demand and complaint addressed to Evgeny Shevchuk, Chairman of the "Renewal" (Obnovlenie) party (posted by 06_07_1970)

Dear Evgeny Vasil'evich!

We woke up this morning and left our apartments intending to head to the cemetery and honor our dearly departed.

In the entryway of the building where we live, we found a huge quantity of "Renewal" party newspapers - they are strewn on the landing on every floor, in the stairwells, in people's mailboxes (several copies of this spam in each mailbox), and in the elevator. Part of the area in front of the building is already besmirched with your party's newspapers - some of the building's residents have tossed them out of the stairwell.

It should be noted that this is not the first time when the entryway of our residential building has been littered with such trash.

Based on these facts, I request that you organize the cleanup of the stairwells of the building at Zapadnyi Per. 19/1 in Tiraspol as soon as possible.

Otherwise, we will have to go to court with a complaint against the Renewal party and against you personally as the director of that organization.

With respect,

Residents of the besmirched [засранного] building

This complaint was also posted on a more traditional online forum, where it has generated some 25 comments. On LiveJournal, it generated the following comment by verba77:

They say our government is impoverished, but think how much money was spent on this garbage. Our authorities don't do anything useful for the people, instead they rub in the people's faces what good rulers we have.

I should note, in fairness to Obnovlenie and Shevchuk, that it's not unheard of for political parties in the post-Soviet space (and probably elsewhere) to engage in the "dirty trick" of placing their opponents' materials in locations designed to annoy voters. I seem to recall that one example of such "black PR" involved party A sticking party B's stickers on cars parked on the street. In this case, though, if I had to guess, I'd say the offending newspapers were probably left by overzealous "Obnovlentsy."

Here's another assessment of the local government by a resident of Transnistria:

Defense of human rights, Transnistrian-style (posted by verba77 [whose journal is subtitled "life with a 'special' child in a 'special' country"])

Two years ago, on June 7, 2006, Pridnestrovie first appointed a representative on human rights issues. An 10-room office was set up and luxuriously renovated to European standards. Dozens of new computers and other office equipment was purchased, excellent furniture, air conditioners, etc. There are plans to open branch offices of the human rights representative in other cities in Transnistria.

Interruptions in - and later complete denial of - the government's supply of essential medication to disabled children began around the same time.

Is it possible that the funds which had previously been devoted to saving the lives of disabled children are now going toward the human rights representative's office?

From my conversation with Transnistria's human rights representative V. Kol'ko last week:

- Does the non-issue of medications which are legally provided for to disabled children constitute a violation of human rights?
- Yes, of course, but what can I do about it?
- What do you mean, what, you are the human rights representative. Can you defend the rights of a sick child?
- There isn't any money in the budget for those medications, our government is very poor.
- Then why does the government have money for such luxurious facilities for a human rights office which is unable to protect human rights?
- What, it's my fault that the Supreme Soviet decided to create this office?

I might also suggest that our rulers do away with pensions and use the money saved to create an office of the representative of pensioners' rights. Or they could close the hospitals and open an office of the representative for the rights of sick people.

In the comments, verba77 explains that his family pays for a couple of more expensive medications, but is trying to get the government to pay for one cheaper item prescribed for their child which is included in the official list of medications the government is supposed to provide:

This has become a matter of principle, because those animals are buying themselves expensive official cars, building lordly estates, and renovating their offices to European standards using the money of the Transnistrians who break their backs working for them, but they refuse to comply with the law guaranteeing medication to sick children. But they spit on my requests and on all of us put together. The animals have made it to the trough.

And on a more humorous note, here's a comment from the same forum titled "[Customer] Service" (posted by sasha_ethna):

Tiraspol'. The train station. We get on the number 3 minibus, hoping to get to Balka.

...I was already handing the driver my fare when a one-lady orchestra came up to the minibus. She had a guitar on her shoulder, fancy luggage and several musical instruments. She tossed her first bag into the minibus and was getting ready to toss in the second, when the driver spat out "I'M NOT GOING TO BALKA!"

All of the passengers were baffled, the one-lady orchestra quickly retrieved her bags, and many people prepared to get off the minibus.

"But we all want to go to Balka!" said a few people.

"Everything's OK - that's where we're going. I just wanted to avoid all of that baggage," said the driver, revealing the logic behind his trick.

[update July 15]

Incidentally, there used to be a LJ community called Foto_PMR (I reposted one cool photo from that forum here) devoted to photos from Transnistria, but within a couple of months after I discovered and linked to it that forum disappeared, replaced by a LJ error message which reads “This journal has been deleted and purged.”

Getting a job - and an education - in the new Russia

Translated from barabanch (original is here):

A young lady came to interview for a job with a friend of mine.
She's a "Young Russia" activist.

Under "Professional Accomplishments" [on her resume] the one and only line read "Participated in the inauguration of Dmitry Anatol'evich Medvedev."

A couple of comments on the post:

by avdeev [my translation, punctuation as in original]:

it's funny, but things like that have been happening for awhile
for example at RGGU they accept [United Russia] party members into the graduate programs, and it's harder for people who haven't been vetted by the office to get in [...]

a couple of my friends were advised by the academic department that before turning in their grad school applications they should pay a visit to the [local United Russia] office, that it would be more correct and predictable to do so

at the office it was suggested that they write an essay about how much I love the motherland, i.e. [United Russia], and how much I want to join the party, well they told [United Russia] to go you-know-where and they submitted their applications anyway, we'll see what happens in September

by el_cambio:

You don't understand.

[quoting from here, which also seems to have been quoted from a transcript of some kind:] Speaking at [a panel discussion on "the new Russian elite" at the "Strategy-2020 Forum"], Vladislav Surkov called on the participants in the discussion to "determine what the Russian elite is." In response to this, producer Andrei Fomin suggested compiling a "list of the elite," and the Andrei Korkunov, general director of the Odintsovo candy factory, noted that such a list already exists, and pointed out the list of participants in the presidential inauguration in the Kremlin.

Looking back on Russia Day, a month later

The Washington Post's report, illustrated by my photo of the ice bear, followed by some personal observations:

At Russian Embassy, Vodka & Good Wishes Flow

By Amy Argetsinger and Roxanne Roberts

Thursday, June 12, 2008; Page C3

What this town needs is more vodka at noon. To celebrate Russia Day, the embassy invited 2,000 friends yesterday afternoon for vodka, music, caviar . . . and did we mention vodka?

Of course, we couldn't refuse. After almost 10 years in Washington, Ambassador Yuri Ushakov was tapped last week to become Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's deputy chief of staff -- a big deal, since Ushakov will oversee foreign-policy and economic issues. He heads back to Moscow on Saturday, so the reception turned into an impromptu farewell party.

Vodka at lunch? "We're celebrating," Ushakov told us. "Why not? It's permitted."

Well, sure! Technically, we were on Russian soil. There was a giant ice sculpture of a bear holding big (actual) bottles of booze, a band playing Russian folk songs, and generals mingling with diplomats and policy wonks. Waiters lined up with trays filled with shots; bartenders poured three different brands of vodka (each with subtle differences -- it was our duty to check) plus various alcohol-based concoctions. The only thing keeping people standing were vast buffets groaning with food.

Shortly after 2 p.m., guests were gently herded toward the door, where staffers passed out cute little vodka mini-bottles. One woman nodded to her companion approvingly: "Vas goot function."

It was indeed a good function - not to mention a great promo for the vodka purveyors - a fun way to spend the early afternoon and celebrate Russia here in the US at a time when there aren't quite enough good vibes in the bilateral relationship. I wish I'd photographed them better, but here are a couple of interesting bulletin boards that the Embassy had up to illustrate highlights of modern Russian politics and of the US-Russian/Soviet relationship over the years:

This was what one would expect - displays of superpower parity and cooperation: Yalta, Ike/Nixon/Khrushchev, Bush 41 and Gorby, Bush 43 and Putin, Clinton and Yeltsin (less prominently, of course), astronauts, military/athletic/scientific cooperation, etc. But also, perhaps less expectedly, Angela Davis.

And the Embassy's portrayal of Russia's leadership - presumably, this is part of what we were celebrating:

Some Putin, but more Medvedev, with the latter's showily pious wife also prominently featured (perhaps the idea is to appeal to Americans' presumed religiosity, or perhaps just to illustrate Russia's Orthodox "renaissance"). Many if not most of these photos look like they were from Medvedev's inauguration ceremony.

Embassy staff gave guests a colorful greeting and send-off:


And finally, here is what we all should have been celebrating, since it's shared economic interests which can hopefully pull the US-Russian relationship through various political storms:

Dreaming of a color revolution vaccine?

Moldova Suverana's website. The cheesy photos and low production values
make it hard to believe this is the largest-circulation newspaper in the country.

Official newspaper Moldova Suverana celebrated the Fourth of July last week in fine fashion by publishing a rather over-the-top attack on two democracy-promoting NGOs operating in Moldova, IRI and NDI. The piece they ran was a first-person account from an aggrieved former IRI employee who seems to have a toolshed full of axes to grind (here are a couple of articles for background), but the most amazing aspect of it was the numerous passages which seemed to have been cobbled together from stale stock phrases as though taken from some do-it-yourself anti-American verbiage kit drafted in Moscow ("now your country, too, can prevent colored revolutions!").

The timing of this article is no accident - Moldova is gearing up for elections next year and President Voronin, who cannot serve another term, would no doubt like to ensure a smooth succession, whether to another representative of the Communist Party or some other designated successor (sound familiar?).

Thus, a full frontal attack on IRI and NDI, which are perceived as proliferators of "colored revolutions" in the post-Soviet space, could well be an attempt to lay the groundwork for a campaign strategy modeled on the one used by United Russia in the '07-'08 Russian electoral cycle. Under that model, any potential - or even long-shot - challengers are dismissed as foreign agents who - in concert with the "meddling Americans," of course - want to, in the words of this article, "overthrow...the Constitutional regime elected by citizens of the republic through democratic elections."

One Moldovan blogger , who seems to be in a good position to comment on such things, [update: not anymore (see comments below)] wonders whether Marian Bunescu, the ex-IRI employee who has stepped up with this conveniently timed denunciation, is being pulled into political games while trying to defend his rights and press his own grievances against a former employer, and also notes that Bunescu's screed excoriates both IRI and NDI, when he only had firsthand experience working with IRI.

Whatever one thinks of American democracy promotion efforts, colored revolutions are impossible without genuine, broad-based discontent within the country with the government, and I'm not sure that exists in Moldova at the moment, so attacking these NGOs may be overkill. In any event, any reservations about an activist democracy agenda should be somewhat neutralized by passages like these (excerpted from the Moldova Suverana article, a full translation of which is below):

The purpose of those [democracy promotion] specialists was to favor and bring to power at all cost the parties that would undermine the statehood, integrity and sovereignty of the country where I was born and live. [...]

Since there is a lot of time till the Parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova and I do not want to be convicted of participation in bringing to power of politicians marionettes, I want to inform that NDI and IRI, under the aegis of USAID, plan to destabilize the situation in the country, as they tried before, but have not succeeded. Yes, yes, namely during the last elections in the Parliament in Chisinau, for the first time, officials of these institutions have made attempts to bring to power corrupt politicians, interested in the disappearance of the Republic of Moldova as a sovereign and independent state.

Parts of these passages could in fact be describing Russia's approach to Moldova - undermining the country's statehood and sovereignty by promoting the continued separation of Transnistria and applying punitive bans on Moldova's major exports to Russia. And Russia's policies probably have to be judged a success on their own terms - after all, Voronin, whether because he thinks it will facilitate a settlement of the Transnistria conflict, or because he has realized (like Uzbekistan's Karimov, who was the first to desert the nascent GUAM coalition) that an alliance with Russia is simpler than building bridges to the West since it requires barely a pretense of democracy and no real reforms, has swung eastward in his orientation of late.

Analyst and blogger Nicu Popescu also excerpted some of the more outrageous language from Bunescu's denunciation and paused to make this observation (my translation):

These are not quotations from the press in Russia, Belarus, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, or Kuchma's Ukraine. They're from the July 4, 2008, issue of Moldova Suverana. An article that is probably the start of a harrassment campaign against [IRI] and [NDI] ahead of the elections, two American NGOs which provide assistance to Moldovan political parties.

Assistance which is made available, it's important to note, to all Moldovan political parties, including the Communists.

Popescu titled his post "Moldovan Putinism vs. IRI and NDI" and marveled at the approach of the Moldovan government:

At the same time as this harassment campaign is being launched against two American NGOs, Moldova is expecting several hundred million dollars from the US under the framework of the Millenium Challenge Account Moldova and is hoping to start talks with the EU concerning a new agreement under conditions where the EU's foreign policy Commissioner has clearly said that the prospects for such an agreement depend on the quality of Moldova's elections. But the harassment of international NGOs is totally inconsistent with democratic elections practices and strikes a blow against the government's hopes to start negotiating a new EU-Moldova agreement.

I don't really have anything else to add except to note that in the comments to his post on this Popescu quite rightly makes a distinction between Bunescu's personal employment beef with IRI, which is being resolved as it should be in the courts, and his rather sweeping and selective allegations (e.g., Bunescu mentions only the Our Moldova Alliance as receiving IRI support, when in fact pretty much all Moldovan political parties receive support from IRI on an equal footing).

I did find a small tidbit online about Mr. Bunescu's work with IRI in happier times (scroll down to the last item), but not much else.

Anyway, as promised, here is a translation of the full article (not by me):

IRI representative makes new disclosures promised at press conference

Pharisaic Democracy

Dear reader, meeting inside the headquarters "Infotag" was dictated by the need to make public some data that I have become aware of thanks to the long-time activity in the representation of the International Republican Institute (IRI), a project funded and administered by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). My name is Marian Bunescu and I worked in the IRI a period of four consecutive years and have to make some clarifications. For a long period of time, I can not ignore anymore the actions and processes taking place with the participation of foreign citizens, especially the U.S., which are conducting on the territory of the Republic of Moldova activities and meetings with opposition political leaders, instructing and financing them in order to overthrow in the spring of 2009, the Constitutional regime elected by citizens of the republic through democratic elections in the Parliament from Chisinau.

Intensive activity to suppress the party that legally came to power has its roots even before the elections in the Legislature of the Republic of Moldova. Namely, before the elections, at the request of IRI and NDI leadership, an impressive number of "specialists" in the areas of conducting coup d'états and orange revolutions arrived in Moldova. The purpose of those specialists was to favor and bring to power at all cost the parties that would undermine the statehood, integrity and sovereignty of the country where I was born and live. Namely because of the reported and from the fact that many times, I directly informed the head of IRI Stiven Rader about the illegality of the support of the opposition parties, basically I lost my job, being ousted illegally.

In order of the above, I want to inform you that Constantin Tanase as a lawyer with whom I had discussions last week and the current week and who is actively defending IRI's interests on the territory of the Republic of Moldova warned me, quote: "The communists will lose elections in 2009 and will come to power other political parties and I'll make you very big problems ". Advocate Tanase intimidated me and proposed a sum of money to restrain me from accusing Americans.

In that context, I want to let you know that in my presence Serafim Urecheanu asked from Rader the amount of 1.5 million dollars, to prepare for the election campaign. On this occasion I want to let you know that Mr. Urecheanu came in person several times (about 4-5 times) to the IRI office, once he arrived even at night. In the IRI's office, he held many times confidential negotiations for numerous occasions with the American in the office of Rader, in order to get their support for the parliamentary elections. Namely, because of letting the American know about my position, which does not correspond to the interests of the IRI on the territory of the republic, I can not get employed, as neither was I fired from my position at the institute nor can I come to my work place, as the American stands in the door and behaves like I am a criminal of America.

I want to inform you, that working for IRI, I had the opportunity to directly to know what "democracy", implemented by the U.S. structures, means. And those who declare and speak loudly about political pluralism and democratic values finance and train such political parties as Our Moldova Alliance. Training and preparation for elections in 2009 of political parties, which main interest is their own enrichment, are held by representatives of the IRI and the NDI through the organization of seminars and trainings, where the average citizens of the Republic of Moldova do not have access. The access is limited because they (Americans) do not want to make public the things that they teach participants, like how to take people out on the streets and how to destabilize the situation in the country. It requires an increased attention the fact that the seminars and meetings of Americans with the leaders of the opposition political parties are funded directly by Americans by cash money, money that are not controlled by any state structures in the country. Many times, during the seminars I directly participated in, I had the opportunity to monitor the way in which are financed the seminars conducted by the IRI. The following question seems logical, would Americans allow, on the territory of the U.S., the activity of foreign political organizations, which are not registered anywhere and are practically doing whatever they want under the motto of "democracy development"?

I can not remain indifferent to the way the American "bosses" act and behave towards the Moldovan citizens that work in the institutions funded by them. Thus, I intend to draw your attention that no employee of organizations funded by the Americans on the territory of our state does not pay any taxes, nor to the state budget, or the social fund. In that context, there is a logical question - do they have a similar and identical behavior in U.S. like the one they expose in Moldova? And in cases of resignation, they do not respect the legislation of the Republic of Moldova regarding the payment of due wages. In this context, I would like to mention that in the case of being fired from the organizations funded by Americans, native citizens with great difficulty can get back their work book, in which usually the necessary information and stamps are missing. As a result, the time spent working in such organizations is lost in vain and does not add up to working experience.

Today I wish to give to publicity and some aspects, in my opinion, of illegal activity of IRI and NDI. Since there is a lot of time till the Parliamentary elections in the Republic of Moldova and I do not want to be convicted of participation in bringing to power of politicians marionettes, I want to inform that NDI and IRI, under the aegis of USAID, plan to destabilize the situation in the country, as they tried before, but have not succeeded. Yes, yes, namely during the last elections in the Parliament in Chisinau, for the first time, officials of these institutions have made attempts to bring to power corrupt politicians, interested in the disappearance of the Republic of Moldova as a sovereign and independent state.

Thus, seeing the dirty things that take place under the aegis of "development and propagation of democratic principles" on the territory of my country, I thought well and took the decision to leave IRI. Because I do not want to take part in the dirty things, that are priorities in the plans of the Americans chiefs of IRI and the NDI. Now I want to draw your attention that the democracy being propagated by the people behind these organizations is nothing else than a fiction, well-hidden, which aims at destroying the stability on the territory of Moldova. In proof of these statements, I want to bring to your attention that training of political parties loyal to Americans in Moldova is conducted directly through the involvement of NDI and IRI in their activity, through various forms. Sometimes, to increase efficiency and image of some politicians and political parties, at the initiative of the institution in which I have worked, experts that took part in the revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia are being invited. Thus, recently, at the IRI's initiative famous Serbian experts have been invited to Moldova, who have contributed directly to disorders in Ukraine, and are now familiarizing the AMN leaders with how to get the people out in the streets, in case of failure.

I address the free media for help, to clarify the case of my illegal dismissal and defend my rights provided by law. At the same time, I address to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, as well as to the State Tax Inspectorate with the request to clarify the situation when citizens of the Republic of Moldova working for the American institutions and their labor rights are being ignored seriously.

I request, in my capacity of a citizen of the Republic of Moldova, who is not indifferent of the future of his country and its people, for the immediate implication of the organs of Prosecutor's Office and Judiciary in the clarification of the activity of the American organizations, above-mentioned. I want to inform you that due to NDI and IRI, in the neighboring countries was possible the overthrow and annihilation of legal interests of the population in favor of some politicians marionettes, who in the end have filled their pockets as a result of undertaken colorful revolutions. Pay special attention that at this moment, those countries are going through processes that influence negatively the life of simple and average people, from the countryside, who no longer have any other options but to leave the country in order to support their families by working abroad. At the moment I can declare with certainty that the main purpose of NDI and IRI is bringing to power in 2009 of the AMN leader, Serafim Urecheanu, who constantly has been seeking help and financial resources from the leadership of IRI, the American Steven Rader. He should be invited and asked if in America he participates in bringing to powers marionettes too? Does Serafim Urecheanu not understand that in the end he is selling his country and its people for some ambitions dictated from outside?

Marian BUNESCU

Even more Caucasus maps

I found one last book with scan-worthy inlaid maps in my attic archives - Kavkazskii Krai - Putevoditel' (Caucasus Territory - Guidebook) by Sergei Anisimov, from 1928. The book's largest and perhaps most spectacular map - a map of Caucasus tourism routes - is something I'm still trying to stitch together from four digital files, since the original was too big to scan in one piece, even on a large flatbed scanner. But the ones which scanned in easily are still quite lovely and - as with many artifacts of the Caucasus - susceptible to being invested with all kinds of meaning.

Anisimov - Kavkazskii Krai - Cover

The coolest of the maps I was able to scan in would have to be this map of Caucasus transit routes, which bristles with all kinds of quaint station-names, including Tikhoretskaya, a station made famous as the destination of the train in the beautiful and haunting song sung variously by Alla Pugacheva in the classic movie "Irony of Fate" (Ironiia Sud'by) (a subtitled video of the song from the movie, with Barbara Bryl'ska lip-synching to Pugacheva's singing, is at 7:45 of this clip (part of a medley of songs from the movie, the second part of which is here) and a clip of just the song, without subtitles, is here) and by Vladimir Vysotsky.

Kavkazskii Krai - Transit Routes, full-size version here.

[update July 15]

Another interesting thing about this map is that it shows the state of railways in Abkhazia in the 1920s - when there wasn't a single line in the region. Wikipedia has more on the history of Abkhazian rail transport. The rail line through the region has of course has cropped up as a relevant point in the conflict resolution talks (and as the subject of a few interesting online photo essays documenting the crumbling infrastructure) a number of times over the years and has more recently become a convenient excuse for Russia to increase its troop presence in the region.

[/update]

Also of interest is this map of the Caucasus' always controversial ethnography. This 1928 snapshot is the sort of thing that proponents of secession in Abkhazia and South Ossetia like to roll out to verify (perhaps not without justification) that "once upon a time, these lands were ours." Often this is accompanied by the tongue-twisting - and often mind-bendingly employed - word "autochthonous."

Kavkazskii Krai - Ethnographic Map, full-size version here.

This map of the Caucasus' geological zones is perhaps interesting in its own right, but I found the most interesting aspect of it to be that it measures longitude in degrees from Pulkovo.

Kavkazskii Krai - Geological Map, full-size version here.

And I'm including this map of Tbilisi Tiflis mainly because it is a cool-looking, old-timey map, which is ultimately the spirit that motivates much of my map-scanning, although I am sure one could do an interesting analysis of the street names - which ones had already been changed by the Soviets by the late 1920s, which ones would later be changed, etc.

Kavkazskii Krai - Tiflis Map, full-size version here.

See all of the maps I've posted here.

Navel-gazing

I try to avoid self-referential posts and indeed have only done one such post dissecting the contents of my server logs in the past - over three years ago! - that I can recall, in which I wrote:

I know this is a sad excuse for a post - whenever weblogs resort to navel-gazing like this, I usually roll my eyes and navigate away. But I hope that my regular readers - all 5 of them - will indulge me just this once.

OK, twice. Anyway, I've noticed in perusing my server logs that people sometimes visit from interesting domains, and sometimes the search terms which lead those visitors here are illuminating. For example, just in the past week or so:

- A visitor from an IP address associated with Ketchum Communications - providers of "really smart PR" to the Russian government - arrived here based on a Google search for abkhazia map 2008

- A visitor from the socom.mil domain (that would be the US military's Southern Command) arrived here based on a Google search for Black Sea Caucasus blog

- A visitor from NATO's Allied Command Transformation (domain name act.nato.int - interestingly, Statcounter still identifies the IP address as associated with SACLANT, although the reorganization of SACLANT into ACT took place 8 years ago) arrived here based on a simple Google search for a not-so-simple guy: rogozin

- A visitor using a computer on the NY Times' network found us while googling first for nashi and mishki and then just for mishki - it also seems one NYT reporter, who shall remain nameless, found this blog while googling himself

- A visitor from Kansas State University found this old post while googling for resurgent russia

- Someone from the European Commission (psbru.cec.eu.int) landed here while looking for something related to Itera

- Visitors from imedia.ru - a domain associated with the publisher of the Moscow Times - arrived here recently searching for moscow blog and abkhazia cement

- And someone visiting from pentagon.mil liked the map of Achara that I posted so much that they checked out the blog's archives for the past three months.

[Update July 15]

One more interesting one from yesterday:

- Someone visiting from the aommz.com top-level domain, which belongs to the flagship of Transnistrian industry, the Moldovan Metallurgical Factory, searching for itera usmanov.

[Update July 23]

OK, I guess I'm going to use this post to catalog a couple more interesting hits from recent days:

- Someone visiting from house.gov, a.k.a. "Information Systems U.s. House Of Representatives," searching for russophobia

- Someone visiting from the State Department, searching for rumsfeld foundation four [sic] central asia

- And this interesting search conducted by someone visiting from Ireland (a bit of an inside joke for the family of SRB commenters)

More on Mongolia

[image source]

Feeling uncertain how to interpret events in Mongolia, I asked a friend with more experience there what he thought of suggestions from some Russian media that the post-election unrest is yet another "colored revolution" fomented by Western forces. Here's the response:

Nah. Of course it's the Russians calling it that; they want chaos so they can pounce. Note that the West isn't happy, but they were all about the revos in Kyrgyzstan/ Georgia. But in the end, it's nothing to Kyrgyz or Georgia. It's not a revolution. Because most people want the MPRP, who won. And they don't like the violence.

My prediction is that it'll pass, and the DPM (other party) will get a few carrots for not "indirectly" pushing for protests, which puts MPRP in position to use violence and makes them look bad. The last time there was an election, in 2004, there was nearly a 50/50 split, which created deadlock between the two parties, and then some compromise was struck. The next four years was a tussle between the two parties, with each trying to gain an upper hand but with the MPRP getting it. Mongolia suffers from corruption, so it wasn't principles that were being traded.

2008 was looked forward to as a time to "finally" give one of the parties a clear advantage to get things done, because the problem was: The political situation demanded the MPRP go populist to gain and maintain the upper hand (in other words, don't seem so elitist, support people against the mining companies); now, with the MPRP winning the majority, they can do what they need to do, and this can either be good or bad - good if they do good work, bad if their position in power only corrupts them further, as there are some bad apples in there.

Something that one of the articles about this said was true: that Ulaanbaatar (UB) is a place w/a lot of unemployed young adults in a difficult situation. It's ripe for violence. But it's not ideological, and nothing from the ground-up.

Watch - I'll be totally wrong. But this is what I got from being there [in the past].

It looks like at least one RIA Novosti commentator generally agrees: "The current unrest is unlikely to spark a revolution in Mongolia, which has merely stumbled on its way to democracy." If you're interested in how Russian media are covering the story, here is RIA Novosti's thematic page and here is Regnum's. Al-Jazeera's report follows the money, and AFP has what seems to be a decent roundup with some good photos as well as this fact-box (on the other hand, given AFP's reputation among international journalists for inaccuracy in breaking-story situations, perhaps I should be posting it with a disclaimer):

[image source]

The "Yurt Revolution"?

Mongolians set it off

[image source]

There is post-election unrest in Mongolia (see here and here, via GVO). Regnum has decided that this is a "colored" revolution and has dubbed it the "yurt revolution"; a commenter at dirty.ru picks up on this idea and points to an article last week in the WSJ Asia (and the SPB Times, but not the WSJ proper as claimed by Regnum, unless you count the online edition) by an AEI expert expressing concern about Russia's influence in Mongolia, titled "Genghis Putin" (and with a title like that, naturally it was picked up by InoPressa).

RBC also uses the "yurt revolution" moniker and turns one WSJ Asia article into alleged concerns by "the American media" at large about the elections in Mongolia, citing unnamed "experts" in also concluding that the events are "reminiscent of the 'colored revolution' scenarios in Ukraine and Georgia."

Don't these people understand that when "the West" sides with a colored revolution, even one that fizzles, they at least have a name and fashion accessories all picked out beforehand? Anyone remember the "Denim Revolution"? The only English-language mentions on Google News of a "yurt revolution" are in reference to the events of 2005 in Kyrgyzstan (more commonly known as the "Tulip Revolution").

The apparent lack of a pre-planned press kit and branding strategy for the Mongolian rioters defenders of democracy is not, of course, conclusive evidence of a lack of Western involvement, but still... before drawing any conclusions, I'd prefer to wait for further developments, and for the guys at Registan to weigh in on this - after all, it's more their bailiwick than mine. But for now they're silent on the story - perhaps because half of their formidable brain trust is still recovering after Budapest.

What's in a name?

Valeri, we hardly knew ye!

[image source]

It seems that Valeri Litskai, the native of Tver' who has been de facto foreign minister of the PMR (as Transnistria's de facto government calls the territory) for as long as I can remember has been pushed out, and just at a time when some believe a resolution to the conflict might be in the works. We can only hope that the guy taking his place wasn't chosen because of his name - Владимир Ястребчак (Vladimir Yastrebchak). Ястреб means "hawk" in Russian. Strangely (or perhaps not so strangely), the "Tiraspol Times" (by all indications an online propaganda project funded by someone close to the PMR's powers-that-be) had a story forecasting this turn of events a couple of months ago.

Here is Regnum's article on the story, one-sided as their stories generally are on the post-soviet "frozen" conflicts and quoting extensively a rather tendentious Transnistrian "politologist" (who was, at least a few years ago, "dean of the Law Faculty at Transnistria State University"). And here's another Regnum story, quoting a Transnistrian politician's comment on the change, at a time when Litskai had just eight months left until retirement and (perhaps more importantly) when talks on resolving the conflict are reaching their final phase: "you don't change horses in midstream." We'll see if this change signals a revolution in the PMR's "foreign" policy toward Moldova, but I'm not holding my breath.

[Update July 11]

Here are some additional thoughts from a Moldovan think-tank on the reasons behind the reshuffle at the pinnacle of the PMR's foreign policy apparatus:

Some developments in the second half of June have made observers suppose that the race between Ukraine and Russia to control the Transnistrian regime has intensified. After Russia has refused to recognise Transnistria’s independence despite its promise to extend the "Kosovo precedent" Transnistrian leaders signalled the need to promote a "multi-vector" foreign policy which would replace the one addressing Russia only. The multi-vector foreign policy may consist in oscillations between Russia and Ukraine only, as the existence and the survival of the separatist regime have always depended on willingness of the two countries. [...]

In all likelihood, Russian authorities have decided to get involved in order to prevent the development of Tiraspol’s game with Kiev, given their "friendly" relations with Ukraine.

Litskai has made public the target of playing on contradictions between Chisinau and Kiev, while Chisinau is trying to get in the good graces of Moscow in the detriment of relations with Kiev. [...]

Transnistrian authorities have appointed Deputy foreign minister Vladimir Yastrebchiak as ad-interim minister shortly after the visit by Russian diplomats led by Zubakov to Chisinau and Tiraspol. The news agency Novy Region quoted sources in the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry as saying that Smirnov will fire Litskai soon for the pro-Ukraine policy he has tried to promote in the last months. The eventual dismissal of Litskai is allegedly linked to his alcohol addiction which often turns into public debauches. In these circumstances, one shall see the real reasons why Litskai is disgraced for: promotion of the so-called "multi-vector" foreign policy with oscillations between Russia and Ukraine, serious drunkenness, health, etc. Indeed, all these factors are convergent. [...]