Invidia!

This cartoon is my favorite item from the Planeta Moldova website, a collection of satirical, mainly self-deprecating, humor put together by some merry Moldovans.



The plot of this story-in-song is that people from all around the world are seized with envy about not being Moldovans. Then, they all deal with their envy by traveling to Moldova in a rocketship. Really.

Luckily, someone else has already gone to the trouble of translating some of the lyrics of the catchy song, along with the soundtracks from some of the other Planeta Moldova videos. The premise - universal envy at not being Moldovan - seems unlikely, unless (or maybe especially if) you've ever spent any time there. The country has some amazingly beautiful places - see photo below - very warm people, and a pleasantly laid-back pace (see here for my take about it from a couple of years ago).

Near Soroca, Moldova, Aug. 4, 2006.

But of course my own "invidia" may be based on the fact that, while I've been there once every year going back to 1999, when I spent the whole summer there, I've only ever visited in the summer, which I've been told is much more pleasant than the winter.

Polonium makes "Law & Order: Criminal Intent"

The writers for "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" must have been reading about Litvinenko a lot last fall. Tonight's episode had an American journalist - Josh - who is suffering from "polonium-210 poisoning." According to him, at least at first, it's due to a story he's writing on an Afghan oil pipeline, which involves "billions of dollars," and, naturally, the "Russian mafia."

Josh became poisoned after dining with one Rebecca, another journo and sometime lover of his who he first met in Chechnya (and with whom he took tea with Gorbachev), and who turns out to have been the actual target. Josh guessed one of her email passwords because it was a Chechen word. But it turns out Rebecca was actually doing a story that didn't involve Russia at all, but was an intricate yarn about the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, involving spies and martyrs.

Also involved for a bit: a guy named Yuri - one of Josh's sources - with a fake story about being an ex-KGB agent, a bad fake Russian accent and a big fur hat.

At one point Yuri says, about the fake story he was concocting for Josh, "I translated articles from Russian papers. Blogs! Everything I gave him I took of the web."

Another bit of dialogue from later in the episode: "There were two businessmen in Germany. Said they were Russians. But these days, who knows?"

Who knows, indeed...

"What Will Russia Resemble after Putin?"

Interesting discussion over at cfr.org between Nikolas Gvosdev and Sarah Mendelson. In addition to the prospects for Putin and his current team, they also debate whether Russia should be - or can be - an American partner while being increasingly authoritarian in its domestic policies. And naturally the broader IR question of whether the US should be concerned at all with other countries' domestic policies, versus just concerning ourselves with their foreign policies, comes up. Representative excerpts below, but the whole discussion is worth reading (from the bottom up, blog-style).

Gvosdev: [...] Would a more democratic Russia—and here I mean not staffed by persons labeling themselves as "democrats," but a government more democratically accountable to the people—be more inclined to accommodate U.S. preferences? Agree to implement punitive sanctions against Iran? Restructure its energy industry to meet our needs? And the list goes on. [...]

Mendelson: [...] We do agree, it seems, on the chances of the post-Putin regime hanging on. That is, at least for a while. I don't expect much change in 2008. My eye is on 2012 and beyond. Here's why: A group of Kremlin insiders may get greasy, gassy, and oily living off the natural resources generously spilling forth from the ground, and the standard of living may generally improve for all, but institutional decline and dysfunction cannot be ignored indefinitely. Unless there is significant change in how the Kremlin governs, and much more investment in major public institutions, this type of regime is ultimately doomed. [...]

Gvosdev: [...] In the end, the question we need to ask is not whether the Russia that has emerged is a Russia we like—it isn’t; but whether it is a Russia we can do business with—and more importantly, whether or not the United States can achieve some of its most pressing objectives without Russian help. [...]

Mendelson: [...] In Russia today, we find none of Franklin D. Roosevelt's "four freedoms." The Western press has focused a great deal on threats to the press and journalists in Russia, and on occasion, threats to freedom of religion. Much less observed are how Russians live in fear and how want still plagues many.

Putin's Russia should not be confused with order or stability. What do I mean by this? In one survey I coauthored with Ted Gerber of the University of Wisconsin, we found 41 percent of respondents fear arbitrary arrest by the police. In many parts of the North Caucasus, the region with the largest youth population in Russia, we have seen an enormous jump in terrorist incidents since Putin has come to power. There are many other examples of lack of order and instability. Corruption is simply an everyday part of life. [...]

To sum up, Nick and I do not disagree on the diagnosis; we both characterize Putin's Russia as an authoritarian state. The difference is whether and how it matters. I believe Russia's current and near-term state bode badly for U.S.-Russia relations, and that most if not all of the twenty-first century issues we face become greatly complicated by an insular, opaque, authoritarian government. I am concerned that the government in power in Russia is neither interested in nor capable of dealing with serious internal threats, as well as the transnational ones we all face. The health crises and the endemic and growing corruption are all our problems. The lack of response by the United States and Europe, read by some as an acceptance of authoritarianism in exchange for strategic cooperation, may inadvertently fuel more extremism (and terrorism) as well as encourage aggressive regional policies in Eurasia. Let's not call independent states that border Russia the "near abroad" unless absorption is something that one is advocating. [...]

Dogs of war?

On the way to the Tbilisi airport, just before 6am, Aug. 15, 2006.

I only had the chance to spend a couple of days in Tbilisi last summer (my first, and so far only, trip to Georgia), but the impressions, sulphur baths, and khachapuri made it well worth the trip. On the way into the city, I saw this sign, an example of US-Georgian official love, and resolved to make sure to get a picture of it on the way back to the airport. So I asked my cabbie to stop for a minute, and to my good fortune one of Tbilisi's strays strayed into the shot. Although the photo is certainly not visually stunning in any way, I couldn't have planned the dog's presence any better if I had tried.

"Russia needs rebranding" - old news?

RFE/RL and Jamestown both have recent stories about Russia's image-polishing efforts. The "enfant terrible" of Russia-watching bloggers predictably cries "outrage," but this is actually old - if admittedly still interesting - news. There are lots of countries that use the media to try to tweak their image. Recall the long-running ad campaign for Dubai, for example. And plenty of them have state-run media which As long as "Russia Today" TV is viewed for what its funders basically admit they intend it to be - a 24-hour infomercial for Russia - it will never have any traction. Deeds, not "image-making," are needed to change Russia's image for the better.

"Russia Today" might build up journalistic credibility over the course of years, but probably not with the current approach, and I doubt it will ever reach the level of the BBC or Deutsche Welle. And it's worth keeping in mind that, per the point of view in the Kremlin, RFE/RL itself, and certainly Jamestown's various newsletters, are also "state-run" media with a distinctively, um, not pro-Russian viewpoint. I don't agree with the opinion held by Putin and his entourage that NGOs always parrot the views of their funders, but I don't think it's completely unfounded, either.

The people who should really be outraged about the "Russia Today" money pit and other elements of this strategy are the Russian taxpayers, whose money is being spent on ineffective programs - but I guess the sources of much or most of the government's revenue today are probably several oil & gas companies, and they're not likely to complain. Anyway, to get to the self-congratulatory point of this post, we had something on this a long time ago, although admittedly there are new elements to the story to be seen in the above-linked RFE/RL and Jamestown stories.

"For lust of knowing what should not be known"

Memories from my trip to Samarkand in late July 2005. The first one was taken on July 23; the rest on July 24. As you can see, some of the more photogenic things turned out to be Soviet-era cars. I decided not to include any classic tourist photos, although of course the city's architectural marvels are quite photogenic as well. A highly recommended destination - lots of inexpensive B&B's. These people can hook it all up for you.

The sign says, "Uzbekistan - a country with a great future" - I. Karimov

An old "humpbacked" Zaporozhets.

A mint-condition "kopeika" (VAZ 2101) in one of the factory colors.

Transporting something - bread, I presume.
The pipes in the background are above-ground
gas lines - common in the post-Soviet space.

A later and lest aesthetically successful version of the Zaporozhets.

Vegetable oil, which I believe is cottonseed oil - and little else - in this aisle of the
local market. Note the reused packaging - Coke, Fanta and mineral water bottles

More reliable than a Zaporozhets.

VVP - Academy Awards Edition

For all you Oscar lovers out there, I had hoped to translate Maxim Kononenko's Academy-Awards-themed VVP story from last month. Didn't have time, unfortunately. Follow the link for the original story, in Russian.

Jackson-Vanik - the wrong impression?

Getting rid of this relic is a good thing that has been a long time coming. But I can't help but wonder whether some in Moscow might get the impression that it constitutes a successful outcome of Putin's Munich speech. And perhaps it does.

End of Jackson-Vanik Forecast
bne
Monday, February 26, 2007

America promised to lift the Jackson-Vanik trade provision from Russia last week that would lift the last of the Cold War trade restrictions on bilateral trade with Russia.

The provision was an amendment to the 1974 Trade Act, which banned the Soviet Union from preferential trade status with America, a sought after status that comes with significant duty savings. The existence of the provision 16 years after the fall of the Soviet Union has remained a thorn in the side of US-Russia relations ever since.

Democrat Tom Lantos made the comments at the end of last week just as relations between Moscow and Washington took a nose dive after President Vladimir Putin lambasted America in a speech in Germany.

They also coincide with National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley's visited Moscow last week on a fence fixing mission.

"I will spare no effort to bring this about, and I have every expectation that I will be successful," Lantos said, who has been campaigning to have Russia removed from the G8

More on the story here.

Another version of Putin's plans...

This possibility has certainly been raised before, but perhaps not so directly:

Putin post election job - Probable Leader for United Russia
bne
Monday, February 26, 2007

Speculation continues to swirl over what job President Vladimir Putin will take after stepping down next March. The leading of the Kremlin's party of power, United Russia, suggested Putin would take over as the parties leader in 2008.

United Russia leader Boris Gryzlov floated the idea in a radio address on local radio in Murmansk last week, but stressed he had not discussed the issue with Putin himself.

This option must have a lot of appeal for Putin. Clearly the amount of power concentrated in the president's hands is dangerous and open for abuse. A gradual shift towards a more balanced system of parliamentary democracy would leave the president in a position to push through difficult reforms, but also curb the president's power and would play very well in the west.

However, to be effective this option would require changes to the constitution after Putin has already given up his power and would have to rely on his successor to champion the cause.

There is a chance that Putin will float the idea of weakening the president's power in the run up to the March 2008 vote, but they do not seem to be big at this point. Most analysts agree that Russia is headed for a system similar to those of Japan or Mexico where Putin will head an informal but extremely powerful cabal that holds the real reigns of power.

Update

The Steven Lee Myers article that partially inspired my "Who Lost Russia?" ramblings is available - with a great photo - at the IHT website, and also at the NYT Magazine website. This week's NYT mag also has a piece on the continuing importance of nuclear non-proliferation work. It's strange how non-proliferation issues are always acknowledged to be an underreported and yet crucial, but they seem somehow to remain rarely discussed in the media.