Nezavisimaya Gazeta (translation courtesy of JRL)
www.ng.ru
May 24, 2010
A "WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITIES" IS OPENED
Progress in American policy: Washington starts taking into account the legal interests of Moscow
Author: Sergei Rogov
[A "window of opportunities" opened for normal mutually beneficial interaction of Moscow and Washington in the future was opened. Along with this, the Russian-American relations remain fairly fragile.]
For 18 months Russia and the US were on a verge of a new cold war. Now it is possible to say that relations between the two countries have reached the highest point in the last 15 years.
After the end of the cold war the US and Russia declared strategic partnership frequently but every time these declarations did not come true. It would be wrong to blame only the Americans for the promises that did not come true. In any case, the main reason was unwillingness of Washington to take into account the legal interests of Moscow. Since the middle of the 1990s, the US permanently put Russia in front of the fait accompli. NATO expansion, attempts to weaken the Russian influence in the post-Soviet space, withdrawal from the antimissile defense treaty and unilateral use of military force contrary to the international law norms manifested unwillingness of the US to build equal relations with Russia.
Hence, many people in Russia took the reload declared by the Obama Administration skeptically suspecting that declarations would not be confirmed by real deeds again. However, now it is possible to speak about real progress in the American policy when the US starts taking into account the interests of Russia in approach to a number of key issues in reality and not in words.
1. Washington gave up the paternalist tone towards Moscow. The Obama Administration demonstrated readiness for a constructive dialog and search for compromise mutually acceptable solutions for the accrued problems.
2. A new treaty on strategic offensive arms was signed. Unlike the Moscow treaty of 2002, it does not impose unilateral concessions on Russia but enables us to maintain a balance of strategic nuclear forces on the parity basis and preserves and improved mechanism of checking.
3. Last year, the Obama Administration cancelled or froze all programs of strategic antimissile defense. It has shifted the emphasis on the regional antimissile defense that cannot threaten the Russian intercontinental ballistic missile. The US will stay in the framework of the treaty on antimissile defense de facto until the end of the current decade. This means that the model of mutual nuclear deterrence will be preserved.
4. The matter of adoption of Ukraine and Georgia to NATO that the Bush Administration had considered a priority was postponed. The new strategy of NATO evidently does not give up the idea of further expansion of the bloc but puts the main emphasis on development of military cooperation with Russia.
5. Although the US refuses to recognize the CIS a zone of "privileged interests" of Russia giving up of rigid confrontation has begun in this aspect too. Washington took political changes in Kiev and Russian-Ukrainian rapprochement quietly. After the new revolution in Kyrgyzstan Russia and the US did not support different clients but helped the new government.
6. There appeared the first signs of positive economic changes. Hearings of the possible abolishment of the Jackson-Vanik amendment took place in the US Congress for the first time in many years. The Administration submitted an agreement on cooperation with Russia in the field of nuclear technologies ("1-2-3 deal") to the Congress again. The US lifted the sanctions from Rosoboronexport and MAI. Serious negotiations on acceptance of Moscow to WTO were restarted, although it was not quite clear yet if Russia was going to join this organization independently or together with other members of the Customs Union. There are also certain changes in the stance of Russia. We signed an agreement on transit of military cargoes and personnel through our territory to Afghanistan. Russia also supported moderate economic sanctions against Iran for which the US struggled.
A "window of opportunities" opened for normal mutually beneficial interaction of Moscow and Washington in the future was opened. Along with this, the Russian-American relations remain fairly fragile. It is impossible to rule out that ratification of the treaty on strategic offensive arms may be ruined. Opponents of Obama accuse the White House of unjustified concessions to Moscow in the aspects of verification, tactical nuclear weapons and antimissile defense.
Discussion of economic issues in the Congress will be equally difficult. A state visit of President Medvedev to the US will take place a month later. This is a good opportunity to consolidate the achievements and to plan further steps for development of the Russian-American cooperation in the near future despite the disagreements about some issues.
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