Handicapping the Moldovan elections

How red will Moldovan voters go this time?
[Image: Poppies near Balti, Moldova, originally uploaded by lyndonk2.]

The world's eyes today are on Moldova. Well, OK, maybe not, but people are watching my favorite small country more than usual as its population goes to the polls in repeat parliamentary elections. What will the outcome be? Results from one of the more current public opinion polls (which is already out-of-date given the brevity of the repeat election campaign) can be found here.

Essential reading (the best analysis I've seen in English) is this post by Nicu Popescu; also check out RFE/RL's blog and this Romanian news-portal's ticker in English. In addition, Imedia, a Moldovan news analysis agency staffed by some real media professionals, is posting regular updates, and a member of the Moldovan diaspora in Bologna is liveblogging the voting at the consulate there.

There are a lot of other sources which I may include in a later post if I have time. For now, let's see what Reuters has to say about how things might turn out:

SCENARIOS: HOW MOLDOVA MIGHT EVOLVE AFTER WEDNESDAY'S VOTE
Reuters (UK) - July 28, 2009

Moldova votes in a parliamentary election on Wednesday to choose between Communists advocating a strategic partnership with Russia and liberal opposition parties seeking closer ties with the West.

Outgoing Communist President Vladimir Voronin called an early election last month after the legislature twice failed to endorse his handpicked successor as new president.

After a big communist win in the April 5 parliamentary election, the liberal opposition accused the authorities of vote-rigging. Crowds of mainly young people ransacked the parliament building and the president's office.

Here are some scenarios on how events in Moldova, Europe's poorest country, might unfold after the election.

WHAT POLLS FORECAST

In the 101-member chamber elected on April 5, the Communists held 60 seats, more than the 52 needed to elect the speaker and government, but one short of the number to elect a president.

Polls show a clear drop of support for the Communists, giving them about 30 percent compared to just under 50 percent in April, but a large share of undecided voters could produce a different result on Wednesday.

Two opposition parties, the Liberals and Liberal Democrats, are seen scoring a combined 20 percent. The Democratic Party, led by a Communist defector, has made big gains and could secure 10 percent, enough to win seats.

LANDSLIDE COMMUNIST VICTORY

If the Communists prove the polls wrong and receive 61 seats, they will be free to elect a government and president.

Relations with Russia would remain a priority and a Communist-inspired "strategic partnership" may bring about the disbursement of a $500 million loan promised by Moscow to help Moldova weather the global financial crisis.

Relations with Romania, linked to Moldova through a common language and history, would then remain poor, while ties with the European Union would probably develop, if slowly.

THE COMMUNISTS LOSE GROUND

Should the Communists win between 52 and 61 seats, they would be able to choose a government and speaker but remain unable to secure the election of a president to their liking.

They could form an alliance with the Democratic Party, under its new leader Marian Lupu, a Western-style intellectual who says such a deal will depend on Voronin quitting politics. Voronin wants to keep a hand on politics, like Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Such an alliance, under which the polyglot Lupu could become president, could produce good relations with both Russia and the European Union, as well as with Romania.

THE COMMUNISTS LOSE THE ELECTION OUTRIGHT

Should the Communists fare so badly that even an alliance with the Democratic Party proves impossible, pro-Western and pro-Romanian parties thrust into power could alter foreign policy dramatically.

Strong ties would be established with Romania and the EU and the new government would probably consider withdrawing from the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States. But that would require time as Russia accounts for about half of Moldova's foreign trade and over 90 percent of energy imports.

The new authorities would also probably announce plans to join NATO, a move likely to jeopardise relations with Russia and which would be at odds with constitutional provisions for a neutral foreign policy.

A membership bid would also complicate attempts to resolve the 18-year-old separatist rebellion in the Transdniestria region, where Russia keeps a military contingent.

NO GROUP SECURES ENOUGH VOTES TO ELECT A PRESIDENT

If no grouping has enough votes to elect a new president, Voronin will continue as acting president until June 15, 2010 -- a year after dissolving the chamber.

STREET VIOLENCE?

Analysts differ on the prospects of new violent protests.

Some experts say the opposition, if it loses, will fear losing legitimacy in the eyes of the West by openly clashing with the authorities and opt instead for peaceful rallies. Any violent protests are likely to be spontaneous, but the Communists could try to blame unrest on their opponents. Communist-controlled media accused the opposition in the campaign of seeking support from Moldova's criminal underworld.