Feeling uncertain how to interpret events in Mongolia, I asked a friend with more experience there what he thought of suggestions from some Russian media that the post-election unrest is yet another "colored revolution" fomented by Western forces. Here's the response:
Nah. Of course it's the Russians calling it that; they want chaos so they can pounce. Note that the West isn't happy, but they were all about the revos in Kyrgyzstan/ Georgia. But in the end, it's nothing to Kyrgyz or Georgia. It's not a revolution. Because most people want the MPRP, who won. And they don't like the violence.It looks like at least one RIA Novosti commentator generally agrees: "The current unrest is unlikely to spark a revolution in Mongolia, which has merely stumbled on its way to democracy." If you're interested in how Russian media are covering the story, here is RIA Novosti's thematic page and here is Regnum's. Al-Jazeera's report follows the money, and AFP has what seems to be a decent roundup with some good photos as well as this fact-box (on the other hand, given AFP's reputation among international journalists for inaccuracy in breaking-story situations, perhaps I should be posting it with a disclaimer):
My prediction is that it'll pass, and the DPM (other party) will get a few carrots for not "indirectly" pushing for protests, which puts MPRP in position to use violence and makes them look bad. The last time there was an election, in 2004, there was nearly a 50/50 split, which created deadlock between the two parties, and then some compromise was struck. The next four years was a tussle between the two parties, with each trying to gain an upper hand but with the MPRP getting it. Mongolia suffers from corruption, so it wasn't principles that were being traded.
2008 was looked forward to as a time to "finally" give one of the parties a clear advantage to get things done, because the problem was: The political situation demanded the MPRP go populist to gain and maintain the upper hand (in other words, don't seem so elitist, support people against the mining companies); now, with the MPRP winning the majority, they can do what they need to do, and this can either be good or bad - good if they do good work, bad if their position in power only corrupts them further, as there are some bad apples in there.
Something that one of the articles about this said was true: that Ulaanbaatar (UB) is a place w/a lot of unemployed young adults in a difficult situation. It's ripe for violence. But it's not ideological, and nothing from the ground-up.
Watch - I'll be totally wrong. But this is what I got from being there [in the past].
3 comments:
yep, you're right, it should be posted with a disclaimer. The bottom-right text "Wednesday: Violence continues in capital" is not entirely true. Midnight Tuesday / Wednesday, state of emergency was declared by the president Enkhbayar, but according to reports the riots were already fizzling out by then. By Wednesday morning, apart from the presence of soldiers and cops, the city was back to usual. There was no further violence in the city.
hi, who was your contact who made that rather pithy assessment of the situation? i recently returned from Mongolia and share the same basic feelings, I'd be interested in learning more about what other people are saying. does he/she have a blog?
tergellian, thanks for your comment. My buddy who sent me that email doesn't have a blog. He's a guy who has spent some time in the region and whose judgment I trust, although I don't think he follows things there super-closely. I suggest you check out the blog written by the first commenter on this post as well as Global Voices' page on Mongolia.
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