Georgia - should we be surprised at the "Woes' Revolution"?

Actually, just about everyone was surprised that Saakashvili seemed to screw up as badly as he did last week. He may be able to salvage some of his legitimacy in the snap elections he's wisely called,* and the "revolution of tears"** now seems to be over, or at least taking a breather to stock up on Kleenex.

I hope to have time to do a more detailed roundup post in the next few days, but in the meantime you can read fascinating - at times moving - firsthand accounts from foreigners in Georgia here, here and here; from thoughtful Georgians here and here; this website should allow you to keep up with more official news sources; and you can follow the Russian media coverage here and here.

I continue to be struck by the way in which Saakashvili's initial justification for the crackdown - an all-powerful "external enemy" - mirrored the style of those in Putin's inner circle who are color-revolution-phobes and are doing all they can to promote anti-Western paranoia. At least one Russian blogger has seen the parallel between this element of Saakashvili's political persona and Putin (I hesitate to draw a broader parallel, but I think it's safe to say the "spy-mania" and search for external enemies may be rooted in the Soviet past that the two leaders share):

[image source / hat tip]***

In addition to several post facto commentary pieces to this effect, I ran across a couple of items in recent days that suggest we shouldn't have been so surprised either at the opposition's persistence in protesting or at Saakashvili's reaction.

First, from the National Interest Online (Nov. 5):

In discussing Georgia, what is most remarkable is that not a single one of the British, French or German foreign policy experts whom I encountered views Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili as a democrat. On the contrary, the overwhelming consensus was that Saakashvili and his advisors have learned to repeat the key democratic mantras during their foreign trips but routinely ignore this rhetoric in governing the country. Observers noted Saakashvili’s skillful elimination of other political power centers and sources of alternative perspectives in the parliament and the media as well as the utter lack of independent courts.

With this in mind, the European analysts whom I met were deeply skeptical of the Bush Administration’s goal of bringing Georgia into NATO. They considered Georgia’s domestic conditions fundamentally different from those in many other new members of the alliance, which had more experience with democratic governance, different political cultures and—most important—leaders who were trying to empower democratic governments rather than themselves. And they were concerned that some prominent Americans, like aspiring Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke, seem to be encouraging Saakashvili’s worst instincts by describing Georgia as a “test” of U.S.-Russian relations. And it was quite clear that Georgian-Russian tensions, temporarily fuelled this week by Saakashvili’s theatrical berating of a Russian peacekeeping officer in front of Georgian television cameras, make most Europeans less rather than more interested in a treaty commitment to defend Georgia.

As someone who thinks that accelerating Georgia's path into NATO (though it's obviously been dealt a huge setback by the violent dispersal of last week's protests) is at best a strange, military carrot to hold in front of a government to get it to make non-military reforms and at worst an irritant to US-Russian relations that is not worth the trouble it causes, I have to agree with much of the above passage.

Also interesting were these results from an April-May 2007 Gallup poll conducted in Georgia, which hopefully speak for themselves:

* perhaps with the encouragement of the "Washington Obkom" (вашингтонский обком) to use a favorite phrase of Russian bloggers (not to mention some journalists and at least one marginal leader) who like to overstate America's tendency to meddle in Russia's "near abroad."

** as it was called by a Russian commenter on the blog cyxymu - "революция слёз" rhymes with the Russian for Rose Revolution, so the wit could perhaps better be translated as "revolution of woes" or "woes' revolution."

***[update] I realize that I should spell this out a bit more for non-Russian-readers (are there any who come here?) - the text reads, "Saakashvili's Plan - Georgia's victory! It is a take-off on the "Putin's Plan - Russia's Victory!" billboards (see, e.g., here) which have created such a stir in Russia.

Consolidating support for the President's course

Now that articles are appearing with titles like "You Must Not Leave Again. The Campaign for a Third Term Signifies That Both a 'Designated Successor' and a 'Caretaker Czar' Have Been Demonstrated to Be Excessively Risky Solutions to the '2008 Problem'" (Andrei Ryabov, Nov. 3, Gazeta.ru) - the 2008 problem looks like it really has become a problem, even for the people supposedly with their hands on all the levers.

Notwithstanding the elaborate versii (a post I had hoped to translate, but it's over a month old and thus may already be hopelessly stale by the standards of Russian politics - anyway, Google does an OK job of translating it here.) cooked up by professional political handicapper, blogger and anticompromat webmaster Vladimir Pribylovsky, it can be said rather simply that a lot of people - powerful and not-so-powerful alike, it would seem - want Putin to stick around in one Tsar-like guise or another. Others have been writing about how it would be the biggest mistake of his career for him to do so, and that if he really believed in or wanted to construct the institutions of democracy in Russia, he would step down.

Apparently, Putin is being "Driven to the Kremlin Wall" by his supporters - certainly those among the narod, but presumably more importantly, those among the elites, fretting in their Maybachs and Rublyovka mansions about what might become of their cash flow in a post-Putin Russia.

I ran across a crazy and somehow very disturbing website that seems to be part of the universal Putin love-in (last week, K-Vlast' got Russian politicians to respond to the question "Does the universal love [всенародная любовь] alarm you?" - another article I'd like to translate but haven't had time to; here's Google's best effort at a translation). The website is zaputina.ru, which launched last week and apparently is all set to become part of a nationwide "For Putin!" movement. I think I'll let the article from ostensibly objective business news portal RBC (an article which I found through a link on the zaputina website) speak for itself and also show how RBC seems to have been reduced to shilling for the regime on this story (my translation):

Virtual voting "For Putin!" is taking place on the Internet
[Nov. 8, 2007]

The internet campaign [Интернет-акция] "For Putin!" taking place on the Russian-language internet, has collected over 16 thousand votes in support of the President of Russia in a day and a half of existence. The creators of the project state that their goal is not to campaign for Vladimir Putin but to consolidate his supporters on the Internet.

As the organizers note, it is not only residents of Russian cities who are voting for Putin. Votes are coming in from London, New York, Kiev, Khar'kov and the other cities of the world.* "We don't want to convince anyone or encourage them to change their political views in favor of Putin's course," says one of the initiators of the project, political scientist Aleksei Zharich.** According to him, the goal of the project is to consolidate supporters of the president and his course.

Writer and former head of Boris Yeltsin's press service Marina Yudenich says that she decided to become involved in the project because she "watches the positive changes in the life of the country very closely." Lawyer [on TV, at least - trans.] Pavel Astakhov, another participant in the project, agrees with Marina Yudenich. "As a lawyer, I better than others understand and see the results of Vladimir Putin's work over the past eight years. These are lower taxes, social projects, and children's programs, and the development of the economy in such private-sector areas as consumer credits," says Astakhov.

The project's goal, in Pavel Astakhov's opinion, is "to show ourselves that we can choose our own leadership [власть] and can preserve those gains [завоевания] and successes which have already been achieved." Marina Yudenich thinks that the "For Putin!" project will show the part of society which is in doubt that the country's president really "possesses nationwide [всенародной] support."

The project allows internet users, aside from just voting, to publish their photo and leave a link to their web page. This personalization, according to Marina Yudenich, is very meaningful, since it "demonstrates that people are not just voting for the president, but they are doing this openly, showing their face and identifying themselves by name."***

* Here we see one of the more bizarre fixations of Putin's team (and often of Russians in general): a fixation on the support of foreigners, even those from countries perceived as enemies.
** Calling a campaign PR specialist or "polittekhnolog" a "political scientist" is such a very "virtual politics" thing to do. Or perhaps Zharich majored in politologiia at the MVD university (yes, that really is his alma mater, at least according to his LJ profile). Zharich's main contribution to the project appears to be that he had bought the zaputina.ru domain awhile back - I wonder if there is anything interesting lurking in the cached earlier pages from that domain?
*** I guess the secret ballot is no longer good enough. Ms. Yudenich neglects to mention how easy it is to manipulate such a website by posting fake photos and identities or filtering out ones the webmaster would rather not have appear; not to mention the comical idea of a "vote" on a website where there is only one choice.

It seems to me that Pribylovsky gets it just about right when he dubs this project "licking together" (a play on the name of the now-defunct, original pro-Putin youth movement, Walking Together).Strangely, there is also a za-putina project (the hyphen makes all the difference) which has been around longer and thus has more "votes"; according to Zharich, though, it's run by the same person who runs an anti-Putin site. Predictably housed at protiv-putina.ru, at least this website allows "voters" to leave comments. These sites could perhaps be seen as metaphors for the Russian political process - such polarization between a certain wing of the opposition and the mainstream that they can't even have their "voting" on the same website! And of course the more perfect way in which the official zaputina project simulates the Kremlin's view of the proper way for the people to interact with the authorities - the only form of acceptable feedback is a vote of approval; no comments, please.

Zharich is not particularly modest about the project he apparently manages. On his livejournal (his handle is brigadier - is that a coincidence?) he writes about what he sees as the main strengths of the zaputina.ru website:

1. Everything on one page!!! On one page.
2. Easy-to-use interface. The possibility of changing something around is excluded, but it's simple and maximally easy for a person to leave their vote.
3. Technologicity [Технологичность]: Video, audio, photo, entertainment [энтертеймент].* [...]
5. This is the real web two [point] zero.
(For those who want it to, their photo links to their web page, blog or online project, by the way. And that's the whole point. It's not a grey mass - but real people. You click and learn about the person, it's cool)
6. If Hillary, for example, had a project like this, the whole world would talk about it.**

* This sums up how Putin has managed to keep people watching TV even with all controversial or potentially controversial news programs dumbed down or removed. It is amusing that this guy seems to have forgotten that there are many perfectly good words in Russian for "entertainment."
** I wonder if this jackass savvy political operator knows anything about Moveon.org or other internet projects that made a splash in US campaigns. They weren't talked about by "the whole world" because they were domestic political phenomena. Why exactly should anyone (other than Russophiles/Russia-watchers like myself) outside of Russia care about this uncreative propaganda website?

For a guy who was born exactly a week before I was and cannot therefore pass as a callow youth, he has a strangely childlike glee about the whole thing.

Gazeta.ru covered the zaputina project and the affiliated (embedded, actually) russia.ru website, which is sort of like a unidirectional version of YouTube (you can watch what the webmasters have uploaded but cannot upload anything of your own or leave comments), in an article appropriately titled Путин-tube (here is a Google translation). The zaputina website is compared to a flash-mob ("where many people repeat the same, most often pointless, action") and it is suggested that these websites are efforts to attract some of the campaign funds which are no doubt flooding the country. You can follow what Russian blogs are saying about the zaputina website here.

So, is this a transparent, "democratic" feedback loop? Or a colossal, polittekhnolog-orchestrated circle jerk? Here at Scraps of Moscow, we report - and you decide.

Moving on to the partner site, Russia.ru calls itself a "Telechannel" (actually, the full text of the title that pops up in your browser window is "Telechannel Russia.ru: Glory to Russia!") and aspires to Internet TV status, although in the lower left-hand corner of the site is the logo and media license information of Kremlin-friendly news portal Vzglyad. As one commenter on a blog post about this story noted:

What do you think, will Russia ever have normal democracy? I think hope is dying out with each passing day...

Even Vladimir.Vladimirovich.ru - which is back in operation, hooray! - had a vignette last Friday about the zaputina project, which I'm too tired to translate and which Google doesn't really do justice. And others are laughing about the whole effort to keep Putin in office as well:

The soundtrack to the above video (really a slideshow of entertaining Putin images) is a song narrating Putin's imagined interior monologue as he arrives at the conclusion that he must remain in charge of the country "for the people."

Meanwhile, from all indications, the runup to to Duma elections is less amusing for parties not enjoying the benefit of the "administrative resource" and is anything but democratic. SPS, for example, has had one of its regional offices vandalized (and was then not allowed to use its allotted campaigning time slot on the local state-run TV channel), its website hacked, and its campaign literature confiscated on a rather thin pretext:

News Friday, November 9, 2007. Issue 3782. Page 3. Police Seize SPS Election Booklets The Moscow Times Union of Right Forces said Thursday that police had seized 14 million copies of its officially approved campaign booklet in more than 20 regions this week. In an entry on his LiveJournal blog, party leader Nikita Belykh said police justified the confiscations by saying it was necessary to examine the campaign materials for content possibly violating extremism or anti-monopoly laws. The Neo-Print printing house in Moscow, which prints most of the campaign materials for Union of Right Forces, or SPS, was raided by police on Thursday and had its operations suspended pending inspections expected to last at least until Dec. 2, when State Duma elections will be held, he wrote. A woman who answered the phone Thursday at Neo-Print said the company was operating as usual and declined to confirm whether it was raided by police. An SPS spokeswoman could not specify which police department had conducted the raid. Meanwhile, Vadim Gologuzov, a senior police official in Krasnoyarsk, said his officers had seized 2 million copies of the party's booklet because it contained an advertisement in violation of election laws, Interfax reported. In Izhevsk, police official Nikolai Shvetsov said police had seized 800,000 copies after an anonymous caller reported a hostage-taking in a garage, Interfax reported. Police found no hostages in the garage, only the campaign materials, which were confiscated to establish their legality.

Things have gotten so bad for SPS (and this time, none of it appears to be the party's own doing, as is sometimes the case with the misfortunes of Russian liberals) that they have even appealed to the OSCE for help, complaining about a "wave of persecution." Good luck.

Update, Nov. 12, 11am: I see this website is a popular topic. Today's Moscow Times in a story titled "United Behind a Putin Third Term", rehashes Gazeta's coverage and provides some more denials and perspective:

[...] [S]ix days after it opened, 27,000 people have already voted on a web site, Zaputina.ru, calling for Putin to stay on despite the constitutional limit of two consecutive terms.

Zaputina.ru did not provide any information regarding its creators, while a United Russia spokesman denied any official party involvement Friday.

"If there is no party's logo on the web site, then it's not the party's project," he said on condition of anonymity, because only the party's chief spokesman was authorized to comment.

Gazeta.ru, however, has identified the site's creator as Konstantin Rykov, who is on the United Russia party list in the Nizhny Novgorod region.

"This could have been a personal initiative on Rykov's part," the party spokesman said.

Gazeta.ru identified Alexei Zharich as the web-site project manager, and the Nic.ru domain registration center said it was registered in his name in October 2004. Zharich is listed by the web site Vybory.ru as the general director of the Political Technologies company and a former Interior Ministry employee.

A secretary who answered the joint work telephone number for Rykov and Zharich said Friday that both were too busy to talk.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, reached on his cell phone Friday, said the presidential administration had no relation to the site. [...]

"United Russia's traces can be found everywhere in one or another form," Alexei Mukhin of the Center for Political Information said Friday. "Because the party has put Putin on top of its federal list, everything done in support of Putin is done in support of United Russia."

Mukhin said the regional rallies and Za Putina, despite United Russia's denials of involvement, could be aimed at pushing United Russia's share of the vote on Dec. 2 to 80 percent and "not permitting any other party pass the 7 percent barrier" to get into the Duma.

Vertical of bureaucrats?

Vertical of Power (chairs)
[image source]

When I first saw Mikhail Khodorkovsky's missive about the importance of voting in the coming elections (the scanned letter, handwritten on school notebook paper, is worth checking out even if some might find MBKh's handwriting challenging in spots) on Ekho Moskvy's elections blog, I planned to translate it. Sean has beat me to it, and the letter has sparked a bit of a discussion at SRB.

But I wanted to focus on one of the things MBKh mentioned in his letter (my translation):

The bureaucracy, and today it in particular is our chief opponent, feels quite comfortable in an environment of social apathy. For the bureaucracy, this [environment] is a confirmation of their monopolistic right to rule the country as they see fit.

It is precisely the fact that citizens are prepared to entrust their choice, their fate, to a little-known bureaucrat that proves to them that it is unnecessary to take into account even minimally the opinion of the people.

Khodorkovsky's conclusion was that people should vote for any the less odious of the smaller parties. I wonder what he would be recommending if Russia still had the "against all" option on the ballot, as it has in previous election cycles.

Veronica at Neeka's Backlog ignited a comments clusterf*** (to use an ATL term, though I'm mildly ashamed to reveal that I read that blog regularly enough to know the local lingo) earlier this fall by declaring her intention to vote against all in the Ukrainian elections, so I guess some regard this as a cop-out option and one that concerned citizens should not take, but I think it is a good option to have on the ballot, and getting rid of it was of a piece with some of Putin's other reforms which strongly enhanced the "management" of Russian democracy. Actually, the Viitorul (Future) Institute's website, where I found the above image, has another poster which is applicable to one of Putin's more spectacular verticalizations of power in Russia:

Democracy without local autonomy is like a ladder without rungs
[image source]

But back to MBKh's focus on the bureaucracy as the rot at the core of the Putinist system. This seems to be one place where the opposition could gain some traction with the public - anyone who has confronted corrupt or indifferent bureaucrats in Russia (or anywhere else, for that matter) knows that such experiences can leave very strong feelings. The Moscow Times had a series of a few articles about various sdownsides of overbureaucratization during this year's slow August news period, though they weren't focused on grass-roots anti-bureaucrat sentiment.

But that sentiment is certainly there - a FOM poll earlier this year found that 23% Russians rated "bureaucracy, arbitrary rule by officials" as an annoying problem, a higher percentage than were annoyed by "lack of money for food and other goods" or "bad roads." And if you add in the 14% who noted "the poor performance of housing and public services" and the 14% who noted "corruption in regional government and legal institutions" as annoying (respondents were allowed to name up to five problems), it's obvious that a fairly large number of people are unhappy with the services they get from their flush-with-cash government.

The government deals with this by using their near-monopoly on the broadcast media to periodically publicize demonstrative anti-corruption crusades and by passing periodic pension increases, and so far it seems to be working - I doubt that any of MBKh's non-loathsome small parties will clear the barrier to enter the Duma, especially since it was hiked up a couple of percentage points by Putin in his earlier reform of the electoral process.

State of emergency on my mind

Reminds me of Moscow [image source]

Here are roundup stories on the violent dispersal of protests (which by some accounts had themselves turned violent) and the declaration of a state of emergency in Tbilisi from the Int'l Herald Tribune, Washington Post, BBC and Kommersant (also, do not miss this Yahoo collection of photos of Wednesday's chaos).

One aspect of the Kommersant story made me want to do a bit of digging:

It is no coincidence that the Georgian president took such decisive steps shortly after a speech by U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Mathew Bryza who said that the opposition rally was “destructive and irresponsible.” The White House thus virtually gave the Georgian authorities the green light to suppress the protests.

I was unable to find Bryza's remarks online, although Google News found a story about his conversations with Georgian leaders in the Messenger, an English-language Georgian newspaper; unfortunately, the Messenger's website seems down at the moment. Actually, websites for Imedi TV (here and here) are currently down as well, but that makes some sense, since the Georgian authorities have taken that station as well as another, smaller station off the air. Actually, Saakashvili's declaration of emergency seems to shut down all broadcasters other than Georgian Public Television, even the government-friendly Rustavi-2, perhaps because its journalists showed solidarity with their colleagues at Imedi and broadcast their last minutes on the air, when the Imedi newsreaders didn't know their broadcast antenna had been turned off.

Much more below the cut...

The only official US statement I could find (in a brief internet survey) was from the State Department's Nov. 7 daily press briefing (Sean McCormack, the State Dept. Spokesman, is paid to dodge tricky questions or at least answer them diplomatically):

QUESTION: There is a lot of civil unrest in Georgia, seems to be reaching sort of a new height today. Georgian -- people in the Georgian Government actually are accusing the Russians of stirring this up as some sort of a payback for the Rose Revolution, et cetera; just wanted to know if you had anything to say about that situation.

MR. MCCORMACK: Well, there have been, over the past couple days, some protests in Georgia, political protests raising a variety of different issues with respect to the actions of the government. Of course, we are very supportive, we're -- regardless of where protests may take place, the right of individuals to peacefully protest to express their point of view. I can't speak at this point to any of these accusations that there may be outsiders trying to stir up things in Georgia. Of course, if that were true, that would be something of concern not only to us, but I would expect of special concern to the Georgian Government.

Look, if there are political differences within the political system in Georgia, they can -- they should be worked out within the confines of that political system and also, they should be worked out in a peaceful manner. And neither side, whether the government or the opposition, should take any steps that would be deliberately provocative to the other -- that could lead to violence. So these are issues that can be resolved through peaceful political dialogue in Georgia and certainly, that's what we hope to see.

QUESTION: I'm sorry, is there any U.S. diplomatic involvement here, any contacts with them or --

MR. MCCORMACK: I know that we've been in contact with the Georgian Government. Beyond that, I don't have any information for you.

But the Russian media are not the only ones blaming the US for what is happening in Tbilisi. From the WaPo story:

Tina Khidasheli, an opposition leader, said in an interview that she had been beaten and hit with a tear gas canister when police moved in. She blamed the violence in part on the United States' "unconditional support" for Georgia's ruling party, adding that she thought her country's leadership would have respected the rule of law more if U.S. officials had insisted it be upheld.

"For four years they did not question anything Saakashvili was doing," she said. "Beacon of democracy? The shining of democracy was in the streets today."

As the Moscow Times and everyone else reports, Saakashvili blames his large neighbor to the north for all of his problems with the opposition:

Opposition leaders, who have not questioned Saakashvili's pro-Western line, called the accusations baseless and laughable. They said the Georgian Interior Ministry was responsible for the "wild" accusations of Russian intervention.

Analysts, too, questioned whether Moscow was fomenting unrest.

"This is hogwash," said Alexei Malashenko, senior expert with the Carnegie Moscow Center. "Russia has neither levers nor opportunities to influence the situation."

Malashenko said Saakashvili was blaming Russia in an effort to lure the United States into throwing its support behind him in the escalating standoff.

If there is anything that the opposition and Saakashvili agree on, it is the need to counter Russia's efforts to project influence on this republic, Malashenko said [...]

Any tangible interference by Russia would prompt the opposition to abandon its efforts to challenge Saakashvili and rally behind him to counter the threat from its larger neighbor to the north, he warned.

From Kommersant:

Mikhail Saakashvili crowned to the speculations of Moscow’s clout when he addressed the nation in an evening TV statement. He said that the opposition was supplied with “money and guidelines” by employees of the Russian embassy who are “staff employees of the Russian intelligence”. He also announced that these people would soon be expelled from Tbilisi. [...] President Saakashvili said that Georgia’s Ambassador was recalled from Moscow “for consultations” so far. In essence, the Georgian president in his speech declared another war on Russia.

“Our intelligence reported of an alternative government that was shaped in Russia,” Mr. Saakashvili said. “But our people will not allow a civil war or events similar to those in 1991 to happen.” The president, who used to call himself a democrat and “defender of people’s right to protest”, said that “everyone is eligible to rally in a democratic country but authorities will no longer tolerate destabilization and chaos.”

I'm sure it's true that Russia is delighted to see that Saakashvili may have made a misstep or blinked under the pressure of dealing with a potential encampment of protesters. After all, official Moscow often seems to respect Misha little more than it would a pesky American-trained lapdog yapping away at the mighty bear. Unfortunately for Saakashvili, even without Russia, he seems to have a knack for rubbing people the wrong way (not to say rubbing them out) and has built up a fairly substantial amount of enemies among the elites.

Saakashvili's speech introducing the state of emergency drew the following response from Russia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (quoted by Kremlin-friendly web newspaper Vzglyad):

The pathos of Mikhail Saakashvili's speech comes down to one thing: in the face of an external threat, he suggests that the citizens of Georgia should forgive the president all his sins and reconcile themselves to the idea that he is "bringing order using a strong hand."

Wait a minute - doesn't this sound like something one could say about Putin's regime in Russia? The parallels, if you think about it, between Putin's hyping a non-existent "Western" threat and Saakashvili exaggerating the extent of Russia's involvement in the Georgian opposition are interesting, though perhaps superficial.

In any event, Saakashvili is showing a willingness to hold on to power that his rather easily ousted predecessor lacked, at least by the end of his career. I would like to hear what the Silver Fox has to say about how young Misha has handled things...

Georgian blogger jibs, writing at TOL's Georgia blog (a good place to watch for updates), says the following:

Four years ago, the current authorities came to power through mass demonstrations against the Shevarnadze regime, and back then the mass media was left untouched. Saakashvili does it differently — this must be a democratic measure I have never heard about.

This is why the demonstrations swept Georgia in the first place, and not because of an “evil” Russia. Russia looks way more democratic right now than Georgia. This is the end of the Rose Revolution myth in Georgia.

These last words ring especially true. After all, many believe that the critical event leading Georgia to break away from the USSR was the Soviet military's violent suppression of protesters in Tbilisi on April 9, 1989 (it's no accident that Georgia declared its independence two years later on that exact date). So if the Georgian political culture includes an admirable tendency to stop respecting leaders after they beat protesters in the streets, then perhaps Saakashvili's days are numbered.

One Russian pundit believes that nothing good will come of this for Saakashvili or for the opposition:

However, recent events are badly damaging to Saakashvili in any case. If he yields to opposition, chances of his party and his candidacy at the upcoming elections will jeopardized. If he cracks down on the protests violently, he will either become a dictator or at least make a bigger row with the political elite. Opposition cannot be called winners either. They are hardly united by anything except for animosity to Saakashvili and general West-friendly sentiment. In the short history of an independent Georgia, the crowd topped two presidents, and it was twice that a successor of the overthrown leader won a following election on a landslide. But who will win now if Saakashvili becomes a third ousted leader?

In his post on recent events in Tbilisi (titled "The Rose Reversal"), Registan's Nathan
Hamm calls these the "scariest-looking riot police in the world." [image source]

For now, it looks like Misha is using "any means necessary" to keep from having to find out the answer to that question. This is certainly not an inspiring picture (from the IHT):

Sozar Subari, the country's human rights ombudsman, denounced the government's use of force and suggested that Georgia, which had undertaken many reforms since 2003, had taken large steps backward.

"Georgia is now the same as Lukashenko's Belarus," he said, referring to President Aleksandr Lukashenko, the leader of a post-Soviet state that much of the West has labeled a dictatorship. A woman could be heard screaming in the background.

Subari later called the police action "illegal" and said that he himself had been beaten by the police. "Even after I declared that I am the ombudsman, they beat me more," he said.

Around the internets, Mark MacKinnon's post on this story sums up the lay of the political land well and is worth reading. Registan pooh-poohs Saakashvili's allegations that Russia is behind everything:

Saakashvili has vowed to stay in power and has, in what has now become quite characteristic for him, blamed Russia for the protests. I’m all for blaming Russia as much as the next red-blooded fan of Red Dawn and Rambo 3, but come the hell on Misha… He says he has proof, but I think it’s safe to assume he won’t produce it.

TOL's Georgia Blog is similarly dismissive, and has a post on this topic entitled "WHAT RUSSIANS?!"

A few bloggers to watch if you can read Russian are cyxymu, tony_geo, and elenaim, all of whom are in Tbilisi and have commented on their experiences moving around the city. In the coming days, no doubt This is Tbilisi Calling will have something to say about the events of Nov. 7, and so will many others. Civil Georgia might also be worth following - although it's very gov't-friendly, it is aimed at a Western audience, so it will presumably try to remain credible. One place you won't see many updates on this story is here - this post represents an almost inexcusable break from the busy-ness that has characterized my life of late.

As of now, here are a few other random on-topic items culled from the web:

Echo of Moscow Radio had posted an open letter to Saakashvili on its blog, but the post has since been removed. The text of the letter, also signed by non-Echo journalists, is up on the LJ of a Russian journalist based in Georgia. It reads, in part (my translation):

Democracy ends when journalists are gagged as they fulfill their professional responsibilities. The slide into dictatorship begins where journalists are beaten at rallies and demonstrations, frightened and intimidated.

Certainly the Russian state-run media outlets seem overly concerned with the possibility of democracy's end in Georgia. From a comment on cyxymu's blog:

The first 11 minutes of Vremia...strangely enough were not about HIM [Putin], but about a small but proud neighbor. So obviously everything is great in Russia - the most interesting stuff is happening in Georgia. A fire in an old folks' home with over 30 deaths is of course no big deal. And in the whole 11-minute segment they didn't manage to actually show the Truth about what is happening there [in Georgia].

Naturally, Vremia has people like Andranik Migranyan commenting on the situation, saying things like this:

Today Saakashvili, having received carte blanche, is ready to do away with the opposition, positioning himself as an anti-Russian leader [as though he needed to do anything more to position himself as anti-Russian]. If he hadn't received carte blanche from Washington, it's unlikely he would have resorted to taking such serious actions against his own people. Today we once again see the obvious truth: wherever leaders speak out in support of Washington, they receive carte blanche to do anything you can imagine."

Migranyan has been working on his anti-US schtick for a while, so he does it pretty well.

Russia Today, the state-run English news channel, seems to have been quite prepared to cover the unrest in Tbilisi. I never thought I would call RT useful, but they have translated into English Imedi's last minute on the air (you can even see the lights go off in the studio as the police enter) and one of their intrepid correspondents battled tear gas to report from downtown Tbilisi (isn't this a better use of YouTube than those Diet-Coke-and-Mentos videos?). More video is available from NTV, which headlines the story, "Tbilisi is on a siege footing."

To close on a more positive note, a RIA Novosti-affiliated website, newsgeorgia.ru, reported early Thursday morning that some of the troops and riot police are being withdrawn from Tbilisi, that the suppression of the protests did not turn into mass rioting, and that the windows of many fancy shops on Rustaveli are still intact, the airport and train station are operating, and utilities and communications are functioning as normal. So perhaps this too shall pass and Saakashvili's day in the sun is not over yet.

[Update: Onnik Krikorian has a great roundup of blogging about the situation in Georgia; cyxymu has a very downbeat and comprehensive new post, which I may try to translate later; Zhirik is making either a bad joke or Duma campaign political hay out of the crisis]

From the vault - the Russian media 3 years ago

My inactivity here in the past couple of weeks has been matched by my activity in real life (v reale, kak govorit'sia) - including a take-home midterm that is due Friday morning. Gah.

A couple of nights ago, I was looking through my personal emails from five years ago, trying to recall what I was writing in response to concerned emails from my friends and family in the US at the time that the Nord-Ost hostage crisis was happening. As it turns out, nothing that seems insightful or non-personal enough to share at the moment - maybe when five more years have passed. But I did find something else interesting - a translation I did of an article in Aktsiia (or, to be more precise, @ktsiia), a free youth-oriented newspaper which used to be available in the racks at the McCafe on Pushkin Square. If I had time, I would go through and insert links to relevant Wikipedia pages or pages of the TV shows mentioned, but hopefully the article is relevant enough as is. Remember what Russian TV used to be like?

"See No Evil, Speak No Evil, Hear No Evil"*
By Vasilii Bereza | Special to @ktsiia
Published on the internet September 7, 2004, and in the September print issue of @ktsiia

During the past few years, all more or less memorable events on Russian TV have been as a rule connected with the removal from the air of journalists or entire channels inconvenient to the Kremlin. The increasing number of topics which are "forbidden" to develop programming or broadcast about has steadily led not only to a crisis of content, but also to a crisis of format. The new television season starting in September visibly (and it can't be otherwise on television) demonstrates the utter stagnation of the domestic television industry.

This fall there will most likely not be any revolutionary changes on channels one and two [ORT and Rossiia/RTR]; these channels are betting on entertainment programs with a strong track record. Channel one will renew its broadcasts of the latest season of "Star Factory" ("Fabrika zviozd") and "The Last Hero" ("Poslednii geroi"). Possibly, the participants of "Hero" will be people who previously appeared on "Factory." On Rossiia, a new project called "People's Performer-2" ("Narodnyi artist-2") will start at the beginning of September and will be hosted by Fekla Tolstaya and Ivan Urgant. A new show by Dmitry Dibrov, originally developed for Channel One, will appear evenings on RTR.

To a large extent, the changes in the programming grids of the major broadcast channels are driven simply by the movement of shows from one channel to another. Thus, "School for Scandal" ("Shkola zlosloviia"), hosted by Tatiana Tolstaya and Dunya Smirnova, which used to run on the Kultura channel, will now appear on NTV. NTV's lineup has undergone the most extensive changes of all, which is linked to the personnel changes at the network. Leonid Parfyonov, fired from NTV in early summer for violating its corporate ethics, decided to dedicate himself to documentary journalism and made a film in Athens called "O, Sport, You Are the World" ("O, sport, ty - mir"). In the halls of Ostankino the former anchorman is now known as "Lyonya Riefenstahl."

A month after the scandalous departure of one of the NTV's leading journalists, the channel got a new general director, as Vladimir Kulistikov assumed that role. Right after his appointment, Kulistikov announced that Savik Shuster's "Freedom of Speech" ("Svoboda Slova") and Alexander Gerasimov's "Personal Input" ("Lichny Vklad") would be cancelled. The "Red Arrow" ("Krasnaya Strela") also left NTV. Stepan Kapusta the rabbit and Khriun Morzhov the pig went off the air supposedly because of either low ratings or flat humor. On the bright side, Tamara Gavrilova, who studied with Vladimir Putin at university, is now deputy general director. It's
not hard to guess who "calls the tune" now at the network.

How NTV's new programming lineup will look is difficult to tell for now. Ever since a ban was imposed on employees talking to the press, a lot of contradictory information has emerged. Some sources at the network say that the changes will first affect news programming, which has traditionally been NTV's strong suit. Starting in the beginning of September there was already a reduction in the number of daily installments of the "Today" ("Segodnya") news program -- instead of every two hours, the program now runs every three hours, and its length has been shortened to 12 minutes.

"The Country and the World" ("Strana i mir") and the 7:00 evening news, anchored by Mikhail Osokin and Olga Belova, have kept their places in the programming schedule. Former anchor Tatiana Mitkova now works on the news department's overall policies in the role of chief editor.

The situation with the Sunday analytical show is less clear. Even the network's journalists themselves say privately that they don't know what sort of format they will be asked to work in. Probably a clearer picture will emerge later, when NTV's new chief producer, Alexander Levin, gets the hang of his new role -- Levin was the progenitor of the first and most successful Russian reality show "Behind the Glass" ("Za steklom" -- a "Big Brother" clone). Most likely, NTV will slowly but surely be transformed into an entertainment-oriented format, which was predicted by observers back in 2001 when the network' ownership changed.

A state-held monopoly on the news is the market situation at the start of the 2004-05 television season. This leads, on the one hand, to a lack of competition between news bureaus, and as a result socio-political programming is steadily losing ground to entertainment shows and movies. On the other hand, a whole genre -- political discussion -- has left our TV screens, but as everyone knows, nature abhors a vaccuum, and the discussion will continue, it's just a question of what forms it will take.

The mass media are no longer fulfilling their main responsibility -- enabling a dialogue between society and the authorities. The impossibility of open, public debate has the potential to foster the marginalization of political movements, especially youth movements. Young activists have already thrown paint-filled balloons at the building on Lubyanka and seized ministerial offices to call attention to their issues.

Apparently, the authorities are determined not to notice the effect on Russian society of a total informational vacuum. This determination could potentially lead to dramatic consequences, first of all for the government.

"The hysteria surrounding this issue must stop" (V. Putin on the Yukos case). And sure enough, we are stopping the hysteria, not only about Yukos and freedom of speech, but also about the anti-terrorist operation in Chechnya, which is yet again entering its final phase. Soon we will no
longer get hysterical about explosions in the center of the city and about passenger planes crashing. Well, no, actually we will, but only in our kitchens. However, Mr. President will not notice this and will "bless" us with the doubling or perhaps even tripling of the GDP. Not just the
president -- soon we ourselves won't notice any hysterical people, or more precisely, they're all gone already. That which is meant to inform us (forgive the impersonal construction) has turned into a mix of Verka Serdiuchka and the infamous doubling of the GDP.


What do you watch on Russian TV?
[from a sidebar on the same page of the same issue of @ktsiia]

Dmitry Itskovich, president of the "OGI" group of companies, publisher of Polit.ru:

Television is not really my way of life, I watch TV pretty rarely, and when I do watch it's usually movies, which after all aren't really television. I don't think people watch TV in order to get information or news -- for that purpose there are many other sources -- but in order to experience certain emotions, so as to relate their thoughts and feelings to standards and images which they trust.

With respect to the changes which have taken place recently and the disappearance of many independent projects from the programming schedules, I think this is entirely logical. My friend Kolya Pobol' told me once about a type of fish called the taimen, or actually he told me about why you can't find this fish wherever there are people. Taimen live in pairs in which the strongest individual fish unite. So a pair like this occupies the best spot in the river and holds onto it for some time. And then along comes a person and catches those leaders, and their place is rather quickly taken by weaker fish, which are also caught, and so on. That sort of degradation is taking place currently in television.

Bright people come on the scene, like Parfyonov, they work hard and create a personal brand. Then they get pulled out, each time for different reasons, but the general reason is nonetheless the same: to show "who's in charge of the river." And so space is created for accidental, or perhaps just the opposite, absolutely non-accidental, people.

Today, one can clearly see a tendency toward the weakening of public opinion, toward the disappearance of its leaders. The leaders are being forced out to the tributaries and backwaters, where they have little influence on the general mood. But there is no such thing as a silent society, that would violate the laws of social nature; of course, sometimes it does happen that there is no society, and such situations have their own rules and consequences.


Vladimir Kara-Murza, journalist, TV presenter:

You know, I like to watch the old shows from our channel ­ TVS. I have them on videotape, so anytime I want I can watch old editions of "Sum Total" ("Itogo"), "Free Cheese" ("Besplatnyi syr"), or "V nashu gavan' zakhodili korabli"...those are the kind of shows I like.

What have I watched recently? The miniseries based on "The Idiot" on RTR. Lately I find myself terribly irritated by the so-called analytical programs. In particular, I've found I can't stand watching "News of the Week" ("Vesti nedeli"), whether it's anchored by Revenko or Brilev. I started watching Lyonya Parfyonov less right before his program was shut down, after he started to give in to the pressure.

The same thing with Marianna Maksimovskaya and Sasha Gerasimov -- I can't forgive them for being live on the air as Khodorkovsky was being arrested and not saying a word about what was happening. They just continued to run their show as scheduled, when their choice of topics had a real chance to change the situation.

Overall, of course, it's sad to watch Russian ("nashe") television...although I still buy the TV schedule, and I try to pretend everything is the way it used to be (laughs).

Yes, I just remembered ­- there was a good show on STS, "Public People" ("Publichnye liudi"), now it's called "Istoriia v detaliakh." And I totally boycott the Sport channel, since they took over our frequency. Since I was directly involved with television production, I am, of course, an atypical viewer. But I think that I've been able to keep the ability to look at things freshly from the viewer's point of view and that I can realistically assess my own work and the work of others.


*I don't have the original of this article anymore, and it's not online anymore either, but for some reason I originally translated the title as "I see nothing, I hear nothing, I won't tell anyone anything." The revised translation seems more likely to be correct, plus it sounds better!

"Он теперь навсегда?"

One of my favorite parts of Kommersant-Vlast' magazine is question of the week - they ask a varied group of Russian luminaries the same question and print the answers in nugget form. This week, K-Vlast' asked "Is he [with us] forever now?" ("Он теперь навсегда?")

I decided to translate the answers (adding some comments of my own in square brackets) and add links to bios of the individuals questioned and their organizations, where available - quite an assortment of luminaries.

Он теперь навсегда? На съезде "Единой России" Владимир Путин согласился возглавить список партии на выборах (см. стр. 16). Это вызвало у единороссов такой восторг, что они решили больше никого не включать в список. открыть материал ...

Is he forever now?
Kommersant Vlast', October 8, 2007

At the United Russia congress Vladimir Putin agreed to head up the party's candidates list in the [Duma] elections. This so delighted the United Russia members that they decided not to put anyone else on the list.

Oleg Morozov, first deputy chairman of the State Duma (United Russia): "Why must you immediately ask about 'forever'? It's just that the idea about Putin becoming Prime Minister looks like the most logical one. The President acted very courageously, endangering his own authority, but this is also a very patriotic act, since Russia needs him."

Gennady Zyuganov, leader of the CPRF [Communist Party of the Russian Federation]: "I wouldn't jump to such a conclusion. Although Putin has indeed decided to head up the 'new CPSU' [Communist Party of the Soviet Union - Zyuganov is referring to United Russia, the phrase he used was "нью-КПСС"], he has probably come up with some multi-step combination move. Zubkov will most likely be his successor. And Putin will become sort of a General Secretary, who will fire and appoint people, playing the role of Khrushchev. But whether that will be for long, I can't say."

Aleksandr Zhukov, deputy prime minister (United Russia): "I wouldn't pose the question that way. The President said that if the party has a solid victory, he might head up the government [as PM]. At the same time, he didn't become a member of the party. This is a normal practice in developed countries, where the parliamentary majority chooses the government and the leader of the party becomes PM." [it may be normal in some countries, but that's not the way it has worked in Russia, and it's possible that the Constitution would have to be amended to make it work this way - see Putinwatcher's related post.]

Garry Kasparov, leader of the United Civil Front. "'Forever' in Russia can turn out to be a very short period of time. Especially since Putin's most recent decisions, driven by nervousness and growing fear, have cut the majority of the ruling elite off from the feeding-trough. This has created colossal instability. And the prime minister's position is one of the false signals in his special operation. How he will return to power afterwards, Putin himself doesn't know yet, and he would pay dearly for advice on how to do this.

Leonid Gozman, deputy chairman of SPS [Union of Right Forces]: "Yes, and it seems that Putin has decided not just to influence things but to be the number-one person de facto. Apparently he understands that his terrarium of like-minded people will be at his throat the instant his power weakens. He realizes that he has created a form of stability that depends on a specific person.

Aleksandr Korzhakov, Duma Deputy (United Russia): "I'm no oracle, but I think that would be a very good alternative." [I have to say that I was shocked to see that Korzhakov is still politically active - Yeltsin's somewhat buffoonish former bodyguard (at right) is on the one hand exactly the kind of person I'd expect Putin's people to want out of the picture, but on the other hand he may be the perfect deputy for a substance-free Duma.]

Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy chairman of Yabloko: "Putin probably wants to stay in power forever. The [United Russia] congress, the speech by the weaver, and the universal love for the leader - all of this looks a bit frightening, as though we're back in Soviet times. But there is one positive point: United Russia will soon slay Putin's approval rating and will drag him down with its deeds."

Viktor Gerashchenko, chairman of the YUKOS board of directors, former head of the Central Bank of Russia: "Putin's entourage is so large and dependent on him that they simply won't allow him to escape. His showy self-nomination to the thunderous applause of the ruling elite is egotistical and unethical. To be frank, it's a word that starts with the letter 'б'." [Not 100% sure what he means, although I have a guess, and it's not flattering.]

Mikhail Kasyanov, leader of the People's Democratic Union: "Nothing is forever. I am not surprised by Putin's decision. Back in May, after his speech [presumably Kasyanov means the state of the nation speech Putin delivered in late April], it was clear that he would stay [in power]. It is obvious that the current political crisis will continue, with the one difference that the prime minister will move to the Kremlin. On TV they will show what the leader of the country is doing, regardless of what his position is."

Aleksei Gordeev, minister of agriculture (United Russia): "It's not that it's forever, it's just that right now the continuity of power is important in Russia. By heading up the party list, Putin has guaranteed continuity, and that is wonderful."

Mikhail Barshchevsky, chairman of the governing council of Citizens' Force: "Not necessarily [forever], but almost certainly until 2011. After the results of the Duma elections are announced, Putin can resign from the Presidency before the end of his term, and once he is a deputy he can head up the Duma. Then he will be elected Prime Minister [by the Duma]. And in the spring the question of amending the Constitution will arise. Any amendments will deal not with a third presidential term, but with a presidential-parliamentary republic. But all of that will be until 2011."

Sergei Baburin, deputy Duma chairman, leader of People's Union: "Most likely, Putin will enter the Duma and there will be early presidential elections. Then Putin will decide to run again [for President], and this won't count as a third term. But the most important thing at the moment is that Putin, in heading United Russia's party list, has buried Fair Russia."

Sergei Mironov, chairman of the Federation Council, leader of Fair Russia: "Our president is unpredictable, he has a specific plan, and only he knows what it is. In spite of what some people write about how "Putin's Plan belongs to United Russia," in fact Putin's plan belongs only to Putin."

Konstantin Romodanovsky, director of the Federal Migration Service: "For as long as is necessary for Russia."

Vitaly Korotich, writer: "In a democratic government, there is no such thing as 'forever.' So perhaps I shouldn't say anything at all. But if we recall what was being said about sovereign democracy just a short while ago, then under such a system it is possible not only to appoint successors but also for the country's top leader to head the party list of a 'non-existent' party without worrying about his reputation."

Roy Medvedev, historian: "For a long time. Things are calmer and more certain with him [in power]. And actually, Putin's decision to head up United Russia's party list was unexpected to me. Now Putin can resign the presidency before the end of his term and then become the Prime Minister. And it won't be possible to dismiss a PM like him in 15 minutes, like it was with Kasyanov and Fradkov. Putin is for all intents and purposes changing the system of power."

Andrei Bogdanov, leader of the Democratic Party of Russia: "You know, in Russia [У нас] even Stalin and Lenin were not forever. I lived half my life on the top floor [of an apartment building], above me letters three times as tall as a person burned brightly: 'Glory to the CPSU.' I won't be surprised if they start to glorify the new party [United Russia] soon in the same way."

Aleksei Mitrofanov, Duma deputy, member of Fair Russia: "If he can remain the only tsar in Russia, then for a very long time. But he said that he wouldn't amend the constitution, and the option with the two Roman consuls won't work in Russia. He's not ready to leave like Yeltsin, and it's dangerous [for Putin] to be the PM, because the Russian people will accept only one tsar. But I'm sure that Putin has a couple more trump cards up his sleeve."

Dmitry Orlov, political scientist: "No, Putin is a manager-type leader, and he's not there forever. Putin has already outlined a very plausible course of events, under which he could become Prime Minister after the presidential elections and work in tandem with the new President. Moreover, he has not said that the powers of the president will be limited, although Putin will nevertheless remain the country's leader in the people's minds."

Mintimer Shaimiev, President of the Tatarstan Republic (United Russia): "I don't see any cause for concern in this. Putin is a strong personality, and the people trust him. The country needs such a leader. It would be logical for Putin to head up the government. And the relationship between the future president and Putin will, I am sure, be a good one, after all it could hardly be otherwise."

Dmitry Zimin, president emeritus of Vympelcom: "It's not out of the question, but in that event Vladimir Vladimirovich will lose the chance to depart with honor and dignity, to step down as the beloved president. I know from my own experience - I was able to step down in time, and now I enjoy the fact that people are fond of me. If I had tarried back then, I might not be so respected now."

Svetlana Zhurova, Olympic speed-skating champion (United Russia): "Putin always does extraordinary things, therefore it's very difficult to predict anything about him. Although he has already said that he wouldn't turn down the position of PM. But at the same time I recall certain experts saying that if the President mentions a certain potential turn of events, then it definitely will not happen."

Eduard Limonov, leader of the National-Bolshevik Party: "I will at least do everything I can to prevent that. He's been in charge for eight years - that's enough."

Aleksandr Tkachov, governor of Krasnodar Krai (United Russia): "Forever, not forever...that's not the point. What's more important is that Russia needs Putin. Under his rule the country has once again attained strength and dignity and is assuredly experiencing rising fortunes. But there are plenty of problems, and it's hard to overestimate the value of Putin's experience as the one who reassembled Russia ["собиратель земли русской"].

Mikhail Bershadsky, president of the Al'faStrakhovanie group: "Nothing in this world is forever, especially in our country."

Sergei Dorenko, journalist: "Putin's problem lies in the fact that he wants to leave power but cannot. His feet are tied to the bicycle pedals. Everyone is crediting Putin with some clever plan, but I think he wakes up every day with a new plan. No one needs him once he's out of power. Though it is true that outside of Russia many are waiting for him with open arms: Chechen families, Nevzlin, Berezovsky, and about thirty other people."

Happy (belated) Birthday, Mr. President...

"Наши" натянули одеяло на Владимира Путина // Прокремлевская молодежь поздравила президента с днем рождения Вчера около 10 тыс. активистов движения "Наши" поздравили на набережной Тараса Шевченко с днем рождения президента Владимира Путина. Руководство движения объяснило замерзшим и вымокшим под дождем подросткам, что господин Путин на выборах в Госдуму должен победить сразу и безоговорочно, а не просто набрать "какие-то 50%". Чтобы сделать господину Путину приятное, "Наши" подарили ему 200-метровое "одеяло мира" и пообещали взять под свой контроль все избирательные участки страны. открыть материал ...

Well, it's not quite a serenade from Marilyn Monroe, but Putin received robust birthday wishes from Nashi on Sunday. As usual, the Russian-language version of Kommersant's article on the birthday demonstration is more thorough than the English version from their website. I don't read any ulterior motive or message into this, no doubt it's just an economy of translator resources on Kommersant's part. I've translated a couple of the more interesting bits from the original that didn't make Kommersant's summary translation.

For one thing, the Russian-language article included some of the chants shouted down from the stage - chants like "Putin, we are with you!"; "Putin is an eagle!; and "Two, twelve, two thousand seven - Putin, stay with us forever!" ("Два, двенадцать, две тысячи семь -- Путин, останься с нами насовсем!"), referring to the date of the Duma elections. It also included an interesting tidbit about the banner on the stage, which read "December 2nd - the election for Russia's national leader during 2008-2012." A few photos from the event, courtesy of Kommersant, can be found here. Robert Amsterdam also has a photo from the event and links to a Moscow Times article in which Putin is quoted as saying, "You know, as a rule I don't hold any parties, but this year is an exception." I wonder if Prime Minister Zubkov was at Putin's side during the celebration, as he has been in the past (according to Anticompromat, and yes, I know I posted this before, but it was buried in my ridiculously long post about Zubkov):

V. Putin invites V. Zubkov to his birthday parties (in 2000 [Zubkov] "...was summoned to [Putin's] birthday party at the Podvor'e restaurant in the city of Pavlovsk (there were only 21 guests)" - "Polit.ru", Nov 2, 2001, citing Kommersant). At one of Putin's birthday parties, accurding to Profil' magazine, V. Zubkov even participated in extinguishing the candles on the cake ("Profil'", Jan 26, 2004).

Anyway, here is the abbreviated English translation of Kommersant's article about the Nashi celebration:

Pro-Kremlin Youth Celebrate President's Birthday
October 8, 2007

About 10,000 members of the Nashi (Ours) movement gathered on Taras Shevchenko Embankment in Moscow yesterday to mark Russian President Vladimir Putin's birthday, which was rainy and chilly. Nashi leaders told the crowd, which came from at east 20 regions of Russia, that the president must win in the State Duma elections next month, “and not by some 50 percent.” The crowd carried signs reading “Putin is stability,” “Putin is peace in Chechnya,” “Putin is the Olympics,” “Putin is the stabilization fund” and “Putin is Sakhalin 2” and was entertained by techno remixes of Soviet pop hits.

Nashi leader Vasily Yakemenko, who is also a member of the state committee on youth, declined to speak to journalists at the event. “They complained about the rain and cold in the back rows,” Yakemenko told the crowd from the stage. “But I want to say that I remember the 1990s, when bandits ruled the streets, the country's budget was approved by Americans at the International Monetary Fund and Berezovsky and Khodorkovsky declared war in Chechnya. And I want to say that we cannot allow that to be repeated and the election of the national leader depends on us!”

The Russian Orthodox branch of Nashi ordered prayers for the president's health in all the main churches in Moscow.

Here we have a summary version of many of Nashi's greatest hits - cult-of-personality-level hero-worship of the leader ("Putin is the stabilization fund"), Americaphobia, myth-making about the '90s, fallen-oligarch-bashing, making the youth feel powerful ("the election of the national leader depends on us!"), and of course religion in service of the state. One bit that was omitted from Kommersant's English-language translation was this interesting exchange between the journalist and a Nashist:

"Are you enjoying the party?" I asked a young man dressed in a warm coat and hat.

"Well, it's so-so," he unexpectedly admitted, "We were brought here from Kovrov [250 km from Moscow], and here it's rainy and cold. I want to go home."

"Will they at least feed you?" I asked sympathetically.

"Where would they do that?" he became totally sad. "When they were giving us our instructions, they said to bring money and a lunch box [тормозок]."

"Bring what?!"

"You know, a lunch box, a package with food from home."

So much for Nashi's vaunted perks for the members. I guess a free trip to Moscow is all the provincials got out of Putin's birthday. Another bit:

Mr. Yakemenko finally set out the main points: "The President has made the difficult decision to head up the United Party candidates' list. But he can't do it alone,* and not everything depends on United Russia, either. And Putin can't just get some 3o% or even 50% of the votes. He must win immediately and unconditionally. And we, the Nashi movement, will help him do this!"

The crowd no longer shared his enthusiasm. The freezing and soaked young men and women were standing three and four to an umbrella, and many of them were shivering. On the pavement lay a piece of posterboard that had been dropped by someone, which had "Putin is our national leader" written on it with a marker. No one wanted to pick up the soaked and dirty poster, but everyone was also afraid to tread on it, so people stepped around it carefully.

*a strange thing to say, given that Putin is alone on United Russia's party list.

Kommersant also offered a brief video report from the festivities:

But it seems that not everyone thinks VVP's birthday should be something special. Echo of Moscow Radio conducted a survey (call-in and online - neither of which, of course, is scientific) asking the question, "Do you think Vladimir Putin's birthday should be a 'red-letter day' on the calendar?"

Results of the call-in voting:

1.	67	8%	yes
2.	793	92%	no
3.	0	0%	hard to say

Results of the internet voting (2869 total votes):

1.	421	15%	yes
2.	2365	82%	no
3.	28	1%	hard to say

For some reason, the very fact that they asked this question made me think of a little ditty that I learned back in the mid-1980s while attending a Soviet school:

Всегда мы помним Ленина
И думаем о нем
Мы день его рождения
Считаем лучшим днем

We always remember Lenin
And think of him
We consider his birthday
To be the best day

AFP on Abkhazia's Olympic dreams

[Image source]

AFP covers a story that Nezavisimaya Gazeta covered (and I translated) two months ago.

Georgia's rebel Abkhazia looks to cash in on Sochi Olympics

SUKHUMI, Georgia (AFP), Oct. 5, 2007 — Locked in a seemingly endless conflict with Georgia over its claims to independence, Abkhazia is unlikely to hoist its flag when Russia stages the 2014 Winter Olympics nearby.

But this rebel region might just emerge a winner from the Games.

"This is a major opportunity for us to develop, modernize and expand our economy," said Sergei Shamba, foreign minister of Abkhazia, which broke away from ex-Soviet Georgia in a 1990s war but is not recognised anywhere in the world.

The tiny province, which Georgia still claims, comprises dramatic mountains, forests and a lush Black Sea coastline.

Just 25 kilometres (15 miles) north across the Georgian-Russian border lies Sochi, the town where Russia is to host the Winter Olympics.

Moscow, which already provides financial backing for the anti-Georgian rebels, says some of the billions of dollars (euros) being poured into Sochi will spill over into Abkhazia.

That is seen as good news by the Abkhaz separatists, who preside over the ruins of what was once a favourite Soviet holiday spot and summer retreat for the tyrant Stalin.

Along the waterfront in the capital Sukhumi, once-exclusive hotels and restaurants are bombed-out shells, gutted and choked with weeds. On the beach sits the rusting hulk of a passenger ferry, once a floating bar, now a garbage-strewn wreck.

The Georgian government, which is angry at Russian support for the separatists, warns it will press for an international boycott if Abkhazia gets a piece of the Olympic pie.

"If Abkhazia is used for the Olympics without the consent of the Georgian central government that will be an annexation," said David Bakradze, Georgian minister for conflict resolution.

"Then I think for the International Olympic Committee and for those countries which share Olympic values it will not be proper or acceptable to participate."

The row adds a potent new layer to an already deep crisis between Russia and Georgia over the situation in the province, from which most ethnic Georgians have been expelled.

About 200,000 people currently live in Abkahzia, which has a de facto government that includes a president, parliament and defence forces.

Despite an internationally recognized economic embargo, Russian help keeps the province going.

More than 90 percent of Abkhazia's residents have been granted Russian citizenship and much of the region's economy depends on thousands of Russian tourists who visit every year.

In a July newspaper interview, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said construction materials, including gravel and cement, would be bought from Abkhazia to build Olympic facilities.

Shamba said negotiations between Moscow and Sukhumi over investments were ongoing and that no deals had been finalized.

But Abkhaz officials have said they hope to attract more than 10 percent of overall investment in the Games and that the construction of a cement factory near the Russian border will alone be worth 170 million dollars (120 million euros).

The region is also planning to build new hotels to help accommodate thousands of visitors to the Games.

"We are the closest country to the Olympic site and we have a lot to offer," Shamba said.

Bakradze said that if Russia uses money earmarked for the Olympics to consolidate its hold on Abkhazia, Moscow will be violating the spirit of the Games.

"I think we are backed up and supported by... the many principles which are the cornerstone of the Olympic Games. You cannot use the Olympics for dirty political games," he said.

Bakradze also warned that Abkhazia's unresolved status could raise security risks for the Games.

Though fighting is relatively rare, the region is highly unstable.

A gun battle broke out between Abkhaz and Georgian forces near the border earlier this month, killing two Russian military officials who had been training Abkhaz servicemen and leaving several wounded.

Georgia has described Abkhazia as a haven for organised crime and warned it could be used as a base to mount terrorist attacks during the Olympics.

"If this lawlessness in Abkhazia continues then of course there are very high risks," Bakradze said.

Shamba denied there was any danger from Abkhazia, saying separatist authorities were in full control of security and that Georgia was the main threat to peace in region.

On the streets of Sukhumi, residents were excited.

"It would be very good for Abkhazia to take part in the preparations," said Mareg, a 23-year-old student strolling along the beachfront. "And hopefully by 2014 we will have our independence and the Abkhaz flag will also fly in Sochi."